ISW Data Shows Russia Losing Ground Despite Putin’s Claims of Rapid Advances

Key points

• ISW calculated a net Russian territorial loss of 293.59 square kilometers across the front since March 2026.
• In September, Russia lost 80.81 square kilometers of controlled territory, with an average daily loss of 2.69 square kilometers.
• Russian casualties in September reached 46,320, the highest monthly figure of 2026 and the third consecutive month exceeding 40,000.
• Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman sector liberated at least 147 square kilometers, disrupting Russian encirclement plans near Sloviansk.
• Putin claimed Russia seized 1,301 square kilometers in September, a figure ISW described as unsupported and more than seven times the actual recorded gains.

Background

This development follows a trend noted in May 2026, when Russian forces recorded their first monthly net territorial loss since Ukraine’s 2024 Kursk operation. Earlier in September, ISW had already rebutted Putin’s claims of rapid gains in August, noting that actual Russian advances were far slower than claimed. The current assessment highlights a continued pattern of Russian rhetorical exaggeration versus battlefield reality, as Moscow struggles to replace manpower losses and faces effective Ukrainian counteroffensives.

How outlets are covering it

ISW and Kyiv Post emphasize the net territorial losses and high casualty rates, framing the situation as a significant setback for Russia. UNITED24 Media highlights the record casualty figures and the impact of Operation Vivaldi in erasing months of Russian gains. Putin’s perspective, as reported by Kyiv Post, claims accelerating advances with 1,301 square kilometers seized in September, a figure ISW explicitly rejects as unsupported. ISW notes that Ukraine’s operational secrecy around Operation Vivaldi makes precise month-to-month comparisons difficult, but the overall trend since March is clearly negative for Russia. Russian milbloggers, cited by ISW, express concern that Operation Vivaldi will hinder Russian attempts to assault Sloviansk from the east, indicating internal recognition of the strategic setback.

Why it matters

The data suggests that Russia’s offensive momentum has stalled, with high casualty rates and net territorial losses undermining Putin’s narrative of inevitable victory. This could impact Russian domestic support and international perceptions of the war’s trajectory. Ukraine’s successful counteroffensives, particularly Operation Vivaldi, demonstrate its ability to disrupt Russian plans and reclaim territory, potentially influencing future negotiations and military strategies.

What to watch

ISW expects Ukraine’s operational secrecy to continue complicating monthly assessments, but the trend of net Russian losses is likely to persist. Ukraine may prepare a fourth phase of Operation Vivaldi, as indicated by President Zelensky. Russia may continue to exaggerate battlefield gains to maintain domestic support, but the high casualty rates and manpower shortages suggest sustained pressure on Russian forces. Future assessments will likely focus on the long-term impact of Operation Vivaldi on Russian offensive capabilities in the Donetsk region.