Grynspan Leads Fourth UN Security Council Poll, but Veto Risks Remain

Key points

• Grynspan gained one 'encourage' vote and lost two 'discourage' votes since the third poll, reaching 10 'encourage', 3 'discourage', and 2 'no opinion' votes.
• Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana and Rafael Grossi of Argentina tied for second place with 8 'encourage' votes each; Grossi gained three votes since the previous poll.
• Olara Otunnu of Uganda and Macky Sall of Senegal each received 5 'encourage' votes, while María Fernanda Espinosa and Ivonne A-Baki trailed with 2 and 1 votes respectively.
• The five permanent members (P5) have not disclosed their votes, leaving it unclear if any candidate faces a veto; the Council may adopt color-coded ballots in October to clarify P5 support.
• Michelle Bachelet withdrew from the race on September 20 after receiving 11 'discourage' votes in the third poll, narrowing the field to seven candidates.

Background

The UN Security Council is selecting a successor to Secretary-General António Guterres, who leaves office on December 31, 2026. The process involves informal straw polls to gauge support before a formal recommendation to the General Assembly. Previous polls in July, August, and September showed fragmented support, with no candidate securing the nine 'encourage' votes required without a veto from a permanent member. Grynspan, a former Costa Rican vice president and UN official, has led the last three polls but faces ongoing opposition. The 2026 race follows the 2016 selection process, where color-coded ballots were used in October to resolve P5 disagreements.

How outlets are covering it

PassBlue emphasizes Grynspan's improved standing after UNGA81 canvassing, noting her meetings with African and Asian diplomats. Global Dispatches highlights Grynspan's lead but questions whether her 'discourage' votes come from P5 members, suggesting the eventual winner might not yet be in the race. Security Council Report focuses on procedural details, noting the lack of color-coded ballots and the possibility that the P5 may delay the process to leverage negotiations. All sources agree that no consensus exists, but they differ on the likelihood of a P5 veto: PassBlue and Global Dispatches stress the opacity of P5 votes, while Security Council Report notes that some members may prefer to prolong the process to assess shifting support.

Why it matters

The outcome determines the next UN Secretary-General, a role critical for global diplomacy, climate policy, and multilateral cooperation. The lack of consensus among the P5 could delay the appointment, affecting the UN's ability to address crises. The use of color-coded ballots in October may reveal whether Grynspan or another candidate can secure the necessary support without a veto, influencing the timeline for the new leader's inauguration on January 1, 2027.

What to watch

The fifth straw poll is expected in October, when Greece holds the rotating Security Council presidency. The Council may adopt color-coded ballots to distinguish P5 and elected member votes, providing clarity on veto risks. Candidates will continue campaigning during the General Assembly's high-level week, and the P5 may negotiate behind the scenes to reach a consensus or block a preferred candidate.