Rubio warns Iraq faces 'Balkanisation' as US troops prepare to exit
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iraq risks 'Balkanisation' unless armed factions are brought under state control. He made the comments in New York after meeting Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi. Rubio noted that some groups have disarmed, but others remain defiant. Analysts debate whether this signals an imminent breakup or a failure to centralize power. The deadline for disarmament has slipped to June 2027, coinciding with the withdrawal of remaining US troops from Iraq.
Key points
- Rubio stated that Iraq risks 'Balkanisation' if armed groups are not integrated into state control, describing the challenge as massive but difficult.
- At least three armed groups have disarmed or joined the government, while others, including Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, refuse to surrender weapons.
- The original disarmament deadline of September 30 has slipped to June 30, 2027, according to Prime Minister al-Zaidi.
- Rubio confirmed that no discussion has taken place regarding extending the presence of the remaining few hundred US troops in Iraq beyond September 30.
- Iran-aligned groups have been linked to recent strikes on regional energy infrastructure, including the Saudi East-West Pipeline.
Background
This development follows previous US-Iraqi discussions in July, where al-Zaidi promised that armed factions would have no justification for resistance after September 30. The current diplomatic push occurs amidst broader regional tensions, including US aviation sanctions affecting Iranian flights to Iraq and ongoing disputes over the Bashiqa base handover to Turkiye. The situation reflects a long-standing struggle in Iraq to integrate the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) into the national security apparatus since their formal integration a decade ago.
Why it matters
The outcome of the disarmament process will determine Iraq's ability to centralize authority and reduce Iranian influence. Failure to integrate armed groups could lead to internal fragmentation and continued instability, while success could solidify Iraqi sovereignty. The timing is critical as US forces prepare to withdraw, potentially leaving a security vacuum if state control is not established.
What to watch
Observers will watch whether al-Zaidi can successfully integrate or neutralize defiant factions by the new June 2027 deadline. The departure of US troops on September 30 will be a key test of the Iraqi government's capacity to maintain security without external support. Additionally, the impact of US sanctions on Iranian air travel to Iraq, particularly to Najaf, will be monitored for economic and political repercussions.
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