Iran War Update: Air Defenses Hold, Strait Risks Mount as Tensions Escalate

ISW-CTP’s March 11 evening update says Iran’s strikes on Gulf air defenses have not degraded them; UAE intercepted 241 of 262 missiles (about 92%). Iran appears to be weighing heavy mining of the Strait of Hormuz to disrupt traffic while preserving export routes via a Goreh-Jask workaround. The campaign targets Tehran’s security sites and Kurdish border areas; Russia is sharing drone tactics and China is supplying solid-fuel precursors. Israel and UAE have responded with strikes on Iranian facilities, and CENTCOM reports U.S. forces have struck thousands of Iranian targets (around 5,500). A leadership shift toward Mojtaba Khamenei signals a harder line, while Hezbollah and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have escalated attacks against Israel and U.S. forces, broadening the conflict.