Atlantic circulation could weaken by 51% by 2100, reshaping coasts and climates

A new study projects the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to weaken about 51% by 2100—roughly 60% more than standard models predict—after correcting biases in simulations. Such a weakening could raise U.S. Northeast sea levels, shift tropical rainfall belts, and usher colder European winters, with a growing risk of crossing a tipping point toward collapse. Observations indicate a 10–20% weakening since the mid-2000s, and while attribution to human-caused climate change remains uncertain for now, scenarios with strong CO2 cuts could limit the decline much more than high-emission futures.