Record-Breaking El Niño Expected to Push Global Temperatures Higher

Forecast models suggest this El Niño could become the strongest on record, with peak tropical Pacific temperatures about 6.5°F (3.6°C) above average—roughly 1.4°F hotter than the 2015–2016 event—potentially driving global temperatures to as high as 3°F above pre-industrial in 2027. NOAA declared El Niño in June; the peak typically arrives Nov–Feb. If realized, it could bring hotter years and more extreme weather, with researchers warning of up to about $10 trillion in potential economic losses by 2032, though such an unprecedented 6.5°F event remains unverified and uncertain.