Ukraine’s Deep Strikes Wreck Russian Air Fleet: 13 Aircraft Lost in Five Weeks

Key points

• Ukraine’s Oko Gora project recorded 11 combat aircraft and one helicopter lost in October, plus two damaged Su-34s, totaling 13 losses since late September.
• Seven Su-34 fighter-bombers were destroyed in October, accounting for nearly one-third of Russia’s 22 new Su-34 deliveries from the previous year.
• A Tu-95MS strategic bomber crashed near Amur region on September 29, killing six of seven crew members; the aircraft is no longer in production.
• An Su-57 stealth fighter caught fire at Akhtubinsk airbase on October 29, with satellite imagery showing burn marks, though Russia has not confirmed destruction.
• Ukrainian Neptune missiles struck Marinovka airbase in Volgograd on October 29, destroying two Su-34s, and Borisoglebsk airbase in Voronezh on October 14-15, destroying four and damaging two Su-34s.

Background

Russia’s aviation losses have accelerated since 2022, with Oryx documenting 205 destroyed or damaged Russian military aircraft since the full-scale invasion began. The Su-34 accounts for 48 of these cases. Recent losses follow a pattern of Ukrainian deep strikes targeting Russian airbases, including a 500-km drone raid on Khanskaya airbase in Adygea on October 4. Russia’s rapid construction of drone bases, such as the Millerovo facility, reflects efforts to counter Ukrainian drone threats, but aviation losses suggest vulnerabilities in traditional air power.

How outlets are covering it

Ukrainian sources, including the General Staff and OSINT projects like Oko Gora and AviVector, emphasize the scale of losses and the effectiveness of Neptune missiles. They highlight the strategic impact of destroying Su-34s, which are used to launch glide bombs against Ukrainian cities. Russian authorities have not confirmed most losses, but a blogger close to the military indirectly acknowledged the need to withdraw frontline air forces. Defence Blog notes that while Ukrainian strikes caused most losses, accidents also contributed, such as the Tu-95MS crash and Su-30SM incidents. The discrepancy in confirmation levels reflects differing transparency between Ukrainian and Russian sources.

Why it matters

The loss of 13 aircraft in five weeks, including advanced models like the Su-57 and Tu-95MS, signals a significant strain on Russia’s aviation capabilities. The Su-34 losses alone exceed a third of annual deliveries, indicating production cannot keep pace with attrition. These losses reduce Russia’s ability to launch glide bombs and cruise missiles, potentially easing pressure on Ukrainian cities. The incidents also highlight vulnerabilities in Russian airbase security and maintenance, as accidents and strikes have affected aircraft across a wide geographical area, from Kaliningrad to the Far East.

What to watch

Ukraine may continue targeting Russian airbases with Neptune missiles and drones, aiming to further degrade Russia’s aviation infrastructure. Russia may accelerate production of replacement aircraft or shift to more dispersed airbase operations to mitigate strike risks. The loss of the Tu-95MS, which is no longer in production, could have long-term implications for Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. Monitoring of Russian aviation losses will likely continue through OSINT projects, with potential for further incidents as the conflict persists.