Ukraine Expands Vivaldi Gains, Threatening Russian Salients in Northern Donetsk

Key points

• Ukrainian forces have crossed the Zherebets River at multiple points, including near Nevskoye and Zarechny, to encircle the Russian garrison at Yampil.
• Operation Vivaldi, which began in May 2026, has reclaimed 277 square kilometers and 16 settlements, effectively halting Russian advances toward the 'Fortress Belt' cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
• The offensive utilized a four-phase strategy involving heavy drone strikes, ground robots, and armored vehicles, resulting in approximately 5,000 Russian casualties and 250 prisoners.
• Russian forces in the region face logistical isolation and potential collapse due to severed supply lines and Ukrainian pressure from multiple directions.
• Military analysts warn that further Ukrainian advances across the Zherebets River could expose the Third Army Corps to counterattacks, despite current momentum.

Background

Operation Vivaldi, executed by Ukraine’s Third Army Corps under General Andrii Biletskyi, began in May 2026 as a counteroffensive to halt Russian advances toward the 'Fortress Belt' cities in Donetsk Oblast. Previous coverage indicated the operation reclaimed significant territory through incremental tactics, heavy use of unmanned ground vehicles, and strict information discipline. By October 2026, the operation had concluded its fourth phase, reclaiming a total of 277 square kilometers and neutralizing Russian bridgeheads on the Zherebets River. The current developments represent an expansion of these gains, moving from defensive stabilization to offensive encirclement of remaining Russian salients.

How outlets are covering it

Daily Kos emphasizes the imminent collapse of Russian salients, particularly around Yampil, citing ISW maps and Western reports of Ukrainian pincer movements. It highlights the vulnerability of Russian forces cut off from logistics. El Mundo America focuses on the tactical execution of Operation Vivaldi, detailing the use of weather, deception, and drone warfare to minimize Ukrainian losses while inflicting heavy casualties on Russia. Vietnam.vn offers a more cautious perspective, noting that while Ukraine has crossed the Zherebets River, further advances could lead to overextension and potential counterattacks, citing war mappers who advise against risky river crossings. Northern Star Online frames the operation as a shift in military doctrine, highlighting the integration of drones and robots, and notes the geopolitical implications for US-Europe relations regarding military technology.

Why it matters

The expansion of Operation Vivaldi threatens to collapse Russian defensive lines in northern Donetsk, potentially securing the 'Fortress Belt' cities and disrupting Russian plans for future offensives. The success of Ukrainian drone and robot warfare demonstrates a shift in modern military tactics, influencing global defense strategies and US-Europe relations. However, the risk of overextension could lead to significant Ukrainian casualties if the offensive is not carefully managed.

What to watch

Ukrainian forces may continue to encircle Russian garrisons at Yampil and other salients, potentially leading to large-scale surrenders or battles. Russian forces may attempt to reinforce or retreat to avoid encirclement. The outcome of the Zherebets River crossings will determine whether Ukraine can maintain momentum or faces counterattacks. Winter weather may impact operations, but Ukrainian commanders indicate plans for further advances.