Dallas Fed Energy Survey Q1 2026: Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Persist, Shipping Costs to Rise
The Dallas Fed’s Q1 2026 energy survey of 120 oil and gas firms (78 E&P, 42 services) finds that executives expect Strait of Hormuz traffic to normalize slowly, with 20% by May 2026, 39% by August, 26% by November, and 14% later. A majority view future disruptions as likely within five years. Shipping costs from the Persian Gulf are expected to rise by more than $2 but up to $4 per barrel after the Iran war, while U.S. oil production is forecast to rise in 2026–27. About two-thirds expect 90% of shut-in Persian Gulf production to return. Employment at respondent firms is expected to be largely flat, though services firms lean toward increases. Overall, the comments highlight price volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, and longer lead times and higher transport costs impacting planning and capital allocation.
