All articles tagged with #crude oil
Oil futures headed toward a fourth straight weekly loss as the Strait of Hormuz reopens and higher flows ease near-term supply concerns; Brent traded in the low $70s and WTI under $70, with markets weighing a U.S.–Iran MoU to negotiate a deal and rising Gulf shipments, suggesting bearish sentiment but possible oversold conditions.
Oil prices fell to their lowest levels since early March as a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal raised expectations of higher global crude supply, with Brent around $78 and WTI near $75; a large U.S. stock draw supported near-term demand, but uncertainty over deal implementation kept further losses in check.
Despite the Strait of Hormuz being effectively blocked for more than three months, crude prices remain below $100 a barrel thanks to record U.S. exports, a slowdown in Chinese demand, and workarounds that keep crude flowing through alternative routes. A pre-war surplus and steady shipments help absorb the shock, but global inventories are draining at a record pace, leaving the market vulnerable to further disruptions and potential price spikes as spare supply dwindles.
Gold and silver rose as weaker oil, softer Treasury yields, and a softer dollar supported metals ahead of Friday’s payrolls data, with crude retreating on hopes for a U.S.–Iran deal. Spot gold hovered around $4,477/oz and silver near $73.96, as equities showed mixed rotations and traders priced in possible rate-cut signals; technicals point to gold resistance around $4,530–$4,550 and silver gains toward the $76–$78 area.
Oil prices jumped after Iran suspended indirect talks with the U.S. and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, lifting WTI to about $94.08 and Brent to about $97.07 per barrel as markets priced in broader Middle East risk.
Economists describe the ‘rocket-and-feathers’ phenomenon: retail gasoline prices spike quickly when crude oil rises but fall slowly as crude retreats, driven by forward-looking replacement costs, slim retailer margins, and competitive dynamics at the pump. Consumer search behavior intensifies price increases but wanes as prices drop, while regional market structures—especially California—can magnify the effect. Media coverage and supply-chain constraints also play roles, and even if tensions with Iran ease, pump relief is unlikely to come promptly.
Global stock markets were mixed on May Day as many markets closed for the holiday; US stocks showed a cautious, mixed session while crude oil held around $104 a barrel, keeping near recent levels as traders digested data and awaited guidance from other markets.
Standard Chartered argues the recent oil price pullback could be temporary, with Brent in the mid-90s after the drop but likely to stay $10–20/bbl above pre-conflict levels as risk around the Strait of Hormuz persists. They project near-term Brent near $98/bbl and WTI around $92.50/bbl for Q2, noting price direction will hinge on Middle East escalation/de-escalation, logistics delays, and reserve purchases. While Hormuz disruption clouds flows and insurance costs, LNG growth in 2026 could offset some gas losses, though real stability depends on a durable ceasefire and lasting settlement.
Oil prices rose after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis attacked Israel, widening the Iran conflict; Brent crude traded around $115.73 a barrel and US WTI near $102.77, extending gains on heightened Middle East risk.
Oil futures look poised to rise at the week’s start, with WTI topping $102 a barrel and Brent approaching $114.50, supported by weekend gains and bets on higher prices. Analysts warn that a sustained move above $102.25 for WTI could trigger a bullish leg toward about $111–$124, while a break below $85.50 would open downside toward $81–$73.
Oil prices are high, but U.S. drillers are holding back on expansion, choosing to repair balance sheets rather than drill more wells as geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, weigh on investment plans; a Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows profitability thresholds but only about 21% of operators expect to meaningfully increase drilling this year.
Oil prices fell after reports that the U.S. sent Iran a 15-point cease-fire plan, which Iran reportedly dismissed; WTI and Brent dropped about 4-5% as traders weighed geopolitical headlines and potential supply risks amid the Middle East conflict.
Oil prices climbed above $103 a barrel after reports that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are considering joining the war against Iran, with tensions in the Persian Gulf and potential disruption to Hormuz shipping contributing to the move.
Markets brace for volatility as the U.S.-Iran conflict enters its fourth week with little de-escalation, threatening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting crude futures, and triggering risk-off moves after Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran to reopen the strait.
OCBC analysts say oil prices are likely to hold above $100 per barrel in the near term due to limited Iran de-escalation and tightened Strait of Hormuz flows, keeping global crude markets tight. They expect Brent to hover around $100 through mid-2026 and ease to about $70 by early 2027 as disruptions fade, but a supply shock risk remains if tensions persist, even as mitigations like strategic reserves and alternative routes could offset part of the gap.