
Western pressure on Putin could backfire, energizing Moscow’s hawks
Western efforts to force a ceasefire by expanding Ukraine’s deep‑strike campaign risk backfiring: costs may erode the instrumental majority in Russia while a vocal moral minority hawks push for escalation, making peace harder to achieve. Kyiv’s strikes may strengthen Moscow’s bargaining position without delivering a settlement, so policymakers should decouple deep strikes from any assumption that the Kremlin will concede.


