All articles tagged with #fedwatch
U.S. payrolls fell 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% and labor force participation at 61.4%, signaling a softer labor market that complicates the Fed’s path. Treasury yields declined across the curve (10-year around 4.621%, 2-year around 4.176%, 30-year around 5.189%), and traders pared back rate-hike expectations for September (about 44%), while October odds stood near 58%.
Oil prices jump toward $100 a barrel as U.S.-Iran tensions flare, stoking expectations the Fed will hike rates in September (FedWatch shows roughly 82% odds of a Sept move and about 38% for a 25bp lift at the next meeting). Strong labor data — weekly initial claims at 187,000, the lowest since 1969 — adds inflation concerns if energy prices keep rising. Markets slide, with the Dow down about 500 points and the Nasdaq more than 2% lower, while Kalshi traders lift bets on a September move; economists still expect no rate hike this year, with cuts anticipated in 2027.
Traders in fed funds futures now price a Federal Reserve rate hike as the next move, with December odds near 51%, January about 60%, and March above 71%, per CME Group’s FedWatch, in response to a week of multiyear inflation highs. The shift raises expectations of higher policy rates into 2027, even as some commentary—including former Fed governor Kevin Warsh’s view that rates could be lowered in the current environment—adds policy uncertainty after dissent at the last FOMC meeting over hints of rate cuts.