July Retail Sales Rise, but Prime Day Distortions Cloud the Picture
July retail sales rose 0.9% from June (not seasonally adjusted) to $784 billion, with ecommerce leading growth and Amazon Prime Day distortions due to its timing this year. Restaurant and food-service spending also jumped, helping overall discretionary spending stay solid. However, seasonally adjusted figures fell 0.6% from June, and the Prime Day timing plus how seasonal adjustments are calculated (X-13 ARIMA-SEATS) complicate month-to-month interpretation. Ecommerce remains the #1 retailer category and accounts for about 18% of total sales on a 12‑month basis, while traditional brick-and-mortar categories face ongoing competition from online shopping.
