Hormuz Leverage in US-Iran Deal Drives Lebanon Conflict Stakes
ISW/CTP’s Iran Update argues Tehran is tying the US‑Iran MoU’s Strait of Hormuz provisions to press Israel to halt operations in Lebanon, signaling long‑term plans to reimpose fees on strait transit as leverage while the IDF maintains a security zone in southern Lebanon. The MoU’s open‑strait framework, likely to be backed by a joint Iranian‑Omani management scheme, raises international‑law questions under UNCLOS and faces domestic messaging that tries to shift blame away from the regime. In parallel, Iraqi militias overseen by the PMF—notably Saraya al Salam and Asaib Ahl al Haq—are undergoing reorganization under US pressure to curb Iranian influence, underscoring a broader Axis of Resistance dynamic amid ongoing Israeli‑Lebanon and Iran‑US tensions.
