Iran War Splits the Global Outlook Into Two Growth Paths

OECD projections frame the global economy around two scenarios tied to the Iran war: a modest slowdown if hostilities ease, with about 2.8% global growth this year and inflation easing, and a sharper hit if the conflict drags on, depressing growth to roughly 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 and lifting inflation, especially in energy-dependent regions. AI investment could cushion near-term growth but also increases fragility by tying activity to chokepoints in energy, semiconductors, and trade routes. The U.S. looks strongest among major economies, central banks stay cautious, and if the war persists, higher interest rates and greater reliance on fiscal policy would follow.