Prediction markets peg July CPI as likely cooler than forecast

Prediction markets on Kalshi imply July's CPI may come in cooler than the Dow Jones consensus, with under 55% odds of year-over-year CPI above 3.3% and just 15% above 3.4%. For core inflation, Kalshi traders put a 47% chance of more than 2.4% and 11% for more than 2.5%, while economists expect 3%? 2.5% YoY core inflation for July (down from June's 2.6%). The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI on Wednesday, a key data point for Fed rate decisions. CNBC notes the relationship and disclosure of Kalshi/CNBC collaboration.