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Core Inflation

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Inflation accelerates, fueling bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike
economy28 days ago

Inflation accelerates, fueling bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike

U.S. consumer prices rose 3.4% in August from a year earlier, with the CPI up 0.4% month over month and gasoline prices rising about 3.9%, accounting for a third of the monthly increase. Excluding food and energy, core inflation was 2.4% year over year and 0.3% for the month, suggesting broader price pressures beyond fuel. Traders priced in roughly a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. Tech prices led gains as software and hardware costs climbed and Apple raised prices on older iPhone models due to chip costs, underscoring inflation risks and the case for tighter policy.

via CNN|
#core-inflation#cpi#economy
Prediction markets peg July CPI as likely cooler than forecast
economy2 months ago

Prediction markets peg July CPI as likely cooler than forecast

Prediction markets on Kalshi imply July's CPI may come in cooler than the Dow Jones consensus, with under 55% odds of year-over-year CPI above 3.3% and just 15% above 3.4%. For core inflation, Kalshi traders put a 47% chance of more than 2.4% and 11% for more than 2.5%, while economists expect 3%? 2.5% YoY core inflation for July (down from June's 2.6%). The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI on Wednesday, a key data point for Fed rate decisions. CNBC notes the relationship and disclosure of Kalshi/CNBC collaboration.

via CNBC|
#core-inflation#cpi#economy
Waller signals possible near-term rate hike if core inflation stays elevated
economy2 months ago

Waller signals possible near-term rate hike if core inflation stays elevated

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed may need to raise rates in the near term if upcoming inflation data keep core inflation well above the 2% target, stressing that another hot reading would be treated as a signal to tighten due to broad-based core-service inflation and anchored expectations; markets price a meaningful chance of a July or September move, underscoring the data-driven crossroads facing policy makers.

via Yahoo Finance|
#core-inflation#cpi#economy
Inflation Sticks Around: Energy Drops Won’t Cure Core Price Pressures
economy2 months ago

Inflation Sticks Around: Energy Drops Won’t Cure Core Price Pressures

Even if June consumer prices dip thanks to cheaper gas, the broader inflation picture remains stubborn. Core inflation, driven by services and wages, has stayed elevated, and tariffs plus AI-related spending—data-center power, memory chips, and software—are pushing costs higher. Housing inflation has cooled only slowly, while war-related demand and disrupted supply chains could sustain price pressures for years, making a quick return to normal inflation unlikely and leaving the Fed far from its 2% target for the foreseeable future.

via CNN|
#ai-costs#core-inflation#economy
May PCE Core Inflation Climbs to 3.4%, Keeping Fed on Inflation Watch
economy3 months ago

May PCE Core Inflation Climbs to 3.4%, Keeping Fed on Inflation Watch

The May 2026 PCE report shows the Fed’s preferred core inflation at 3.4% year-over-year (up 0.3% for May) and all-items inflation at 4.1% (up 0.4% for the month), with consumer spending rising 0.7% and personal income up 0.7%. GDP grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in Q1, while initial jobless claims fell to 215,000. The data underscore persistent inflation pressures even as growth remains solid, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious-to-hawkish stance on policy.

via CNBC|
#consumer-spending#core-inflation#economy
Iran War Pushes U.S. Inflation to Three-Year High, Fed Weighs Rate Hikes
economy4 months ago

Iran War Pushes U.S. Inflation to Three-Year High, Fed Weighs Rate Hikes

Inflation rose in April, with the Fed’s preferred PCE price index up 3.8% year over year—the fastest since May 2023—and core inflation at 3.3%; monthly gains were 0.4% overall and 0.2% excluding food and energy. The war in Iran has disrupted energy markets, complicating price pressures and prompting more Fed officials to consider rate hikes to tame inflation, even as growth was revised downward and consumer spending cooled. The Fed’s leadership transition to Kevin Warsh adds to expectations that policy could tighten next year.

via The New York Times|
#core-inflation#economy#federal-reserve
Energy surge lifts March CPI as core inflation remains restrained
economy6 months ago

Energy surge lifts March CPI as core inflation remains restrained

March CPI rose 0.9% to 3.3% year over year, led by a 21.2% spike in gasoline and a 10.9% jump in energy from the Iran conflict; core CPI gained 0.2% for the month and 2.6% annually, signaling contained underlying inflation, with pockets of price declines in medical care, personal care, and used cars. Services excluding energy rose 0.2% and shelter 0.3%. Energy pressures eased in April after a U.S.–Iran cease-fire, and markets expect the Fed to remain patient while watching the broader inflation path toward its target.

via CNBC|
#core-inflation#cpi#economy
Core inflation remains at 3% as pre-war data show softer demand and slower growth
economy6 months ago

Core inflation remains at 3% as pre-war data show softer demand and slower growth

February core PCE rose 3% and headline inflation 2.8%, while consumer spending fell 0.1% and personal income rose 0.4%. GDP for Q4 was revised down to 0.5% growth (down from 0.7%), driven by weaker investment and lower real final sales. The report suggests stagflation pressures even before the Iran conflict boosts energy prices, with Fed officials expected to keep rates on hold as inflation remains above target.

via CNBC|
#core-inflation#economy#energy-prices
Bond yields slide as cooler core inflation boosts bets on slower Fed tightening
markets8 months ago

Bond yields slide as cooler core inflation boosts bets on slower Fed tightening

U.S. Treasuries rallied after December's core inflation rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, driving the 10-year yield down to about 4.175% (hit 4.156% intraday) while the 2-year slid to roughly 3.528% and the 30-year to 4.832%. Markets price in two 25-basis-point Fed cuts this year beginning in June as inflation trends decline and the labor market slows, though larger policy moves depend on ongoing data and the DOJ investigation into Powell’s renovations, which he says could influence the central bank’s decisions.

via CNBC|
#core-inflation#cpi#fed-expectations
US Inflation Remains Steady as Consumer Spending Continues
economy1 year ago

US Inflation Remains Steady as Consumer Spending Continues

The US inflation gauge remained steady in July at 2.6%, with core inflation slightly rising to 2.9%, indicating persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target. Consumer spending increased significantly, and incomes rose, supporting the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed next month, despite political pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates.

via Yahoo Finance|
#consumer-spending#core-inflation#economy