All articles tagged with #cpi
U.S. stock futures were little changed overnight as investors weighed a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and awaited the March CPI inflation report; Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 futures edged up while Dow futures hovered near flat, with oil prices modestly higher and BlackRock earnings in focus for the next session.
U.S. stocks are higher on Friday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 set to finish the week up as traders weigh a hotter March CPI (headline +0.9%, core +0.2%) against a record-low April consumer sentiment reading, while inflation expectations tick higher. Investors are also eyeing direct U.S.-Iran peace talks and related geopolitical developments as notable catalysts.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a record low of 47.6 in April 2026 as price spikes tied to the US–Iran conflict weigh on shoppers; inflation expectations rose (short-term 4.8%, long-term 3.4%), March CPI jumped 0.9% to 3.3%, and unemployment remains relatively low, suggesting sentiment could depress consumer spending if the labor market weakens.
US consumer prices rose 0.9% in March to 3.3% year over year, driven by a sharp energy surge (gasoline +21.2%); core inflation gained 0.2% for the month and 2.6% year over year. The data mirror a mixed economy: Q4 2025 GDP was revised down to 0.5%, the ISM prices index jumped to 70.7 in March, and consumer confidence hit a record low, but payrolls rose by 178,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. With inflation showing momentum and energy shocks continuing, the Fed faces a difficult trade-off between tightening to curb prices and not destabilizing the labor market, as analysts warn the next CPI could remain sturdy due to energy-driven price pressures.
Investors kept a wary eye on a fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire as stock futures stayed muted, while oil rose on Hormuz bottlenecks and traders awaited the March CPI data. Gold eased amid a firmer dollar and inflation concerns, with economists expecting the headline CPI to rise on higher energy prices and core inflation to advance more moderately, likely shaping the Fed’s near-term stance.
March CPI rose 0.9% to 3.3% year over year, led by a 21.2% spike in gasoline and a 10.9% jump in energy from the Iran conflict; core CPI gained 0.2% for the month and 2.6% annually, signaling contained underlying inflation, with pockets of price declines in medical care, personal care, and used cars. Services excluding energy rose 0.2% and shelter 0.3%. Energy pressures eased in April after a U.S.–Iran cease-fire, and markets expect the Fed to remain patient while watching the broader inflation path toward its target.
The upcoming March CPI is expected to show inflation around 3.3% annually, the highest since May 2024, driven by a surge in energy costs tied to the Iran war, with economists warning inflation could top 3% in March and exceed 4% by April, signaling ripple effects on groceries, travel, and borrowing costs as the Fed remains cautious on policy.
The March consumer-price index is expected to rise 3.4% year over year, the biggest jump in two years, as costs tied to the Iran conflict lift prices across the economy—particularly for autos, jet fuel, and food—creating spillovers through manufacturing and travel and leaving Fed policy on hold until the data are in.
Britain’s inflation basket has been refreshed, adding items such as alcohol-free beer, houmous, motorhomes, dashcams and pet grooming while removing others; 27 additions and 19 removals bring the total to 760 items. The ONS will rely more on supermarket scanner data for prices, reflecting shifts in healthier lifestyles and technology. The latest CPI was 3% in January, with a 2% target; forecasters now expect inflation closer to 3% amid geopolitical fallout.
Treasury yields climbed after February CPI showed sticky inflation (0.3% m/o, 2.4% y/y), with the 10-year around 4.20%, the 30-year around 4.84%, and the 2-year near 3.63%. Oil prices jumped about 4% on U.S.-Iran tensions despite the IEA’s record 400-million-barrel release, as investors weigh ongoing conflict against inflation data ahead of housing starts, weekly jobless claims, and the Fed's preferred PCE price index.
February CPI shows annual inflation at 2.4% with a 0.3% monthly gain. Energy prices rose (fuel oil surged; gasoline up about 0.8%), while core inflation held at 2.5% year over year and 0.2% monthly. The data were collected before the US‑Israel attack on Iran, but the conflict could push energy costs higher and lift inflation in the coming months. Tariffs continue to show up in prices (apparel +1.3%, household furnishings +0.3%), with refunds still pending.
U.S. stock futures were mostly flat in after-hours trading ahead of this week’s CPI reading, with Nasdaq 100 up 0.02% and the S&P 500 up 0.03% while Dow futures fell 0.04%; in the prior session major indices slid on Iran-war developments as investors awaited a 2.4% year-over-year CPI print and earnings reports from Serve Robotics (SERV), UiPath (PATH), Stitch Fix (SFIX) and Bumble (BMBL).
February CPI rose 0.3% (0.2% core) to 2.4% year over year, with shelter up 0.2% and rent barely higher at 0.1%; food climbed 0.4% (egg prices down 3.8%), energy rose 0.6%. The print was in line with forecasts, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target but not worsening. The Fed is expected to hold rates at the March meeting, though oil-price pressures from the Iran conflict could lift energy costs later; markets see a first rate cut around September with roughly a 43% chance of a second move by year-end.
US stock futures hovered near flat ahead of February's CPI release as traders weigh renewed Iran tensions and volatile oil prices; Dow futures in slight positive territory with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures modestly higher after a mixed Tuesday session, while Europe opened lower on war news. Oil prices surged into the upper $80s on supply concerns and potential IEA emergency releases, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to the conflict and Strait of Hormuz developments. In company news, Oracle rose on strong earnings, AeroVironment fell on weak results, and Amazon won a court injunction against Perplexity’s AI shopping bot.
Rising WTI crude above $90 per barrel signals a near-term inflation shock, prompting a higher 2026 oil forecast and nudging CPI and core inflation higher, underscoring the Fed’s data-driven challenge to avoid another year of inflation misses.