All articles tagged with #cpi
A hotter-than-expected CPI reading suggests inflation may prove stickier than hoped, prompting the Fed to stay cautious and lifting odds of further rate hikes; markets price in a longer, higher-for-longer path for policy as investors reassess timing of monetary tightening.
US consumer prices rose 3.8% year over year in April, the fastest since 2023, driven by surging energy costs tied to the Iran conflict; gas averages about $4.50 a gallon, with housing and groceries also lifting inflation, keeping Federal Reserve rate cuts unlikely this year.
U.S. stock futures dipped on Tuesday after April’s CPI showed persistent inflation: headline CPI rose 3.8% year over year with core CPI up 2.8%, while monthly changes were 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively. Nasdaq-100 futures led declines (about -1%), S&P 500 futures fell around -0.4%, and Dow futures barely moved. Oil prices climbed above $100 amid Gulf tensions and ongoing energy costs, as markets weigh the inflation data against the Fed policy path and keep an eye on geopolitical headlines including Trump’s China trip and Iran tensions.
April CPI rose 0.6% for the month, lifting the year-over-year rate to 3.8% — the highest since May 2023 — driven largely by energy; core CPI gained 0.4% and 2.8% YoY, showing inflation spreading beyond food and energy. Real wages fell, markets moved lower, and traders priced in roughly a 30% chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end, with the Fed keeping rates unchanged in April.
U.S. stock futures drift lower as talks between the U.S. and Iran stall ahead of a key U.S. CPI release; oil prices climb above $105 on Middle East tensions, keeping inflation concerns in play as investors look for clues on the Fed’s next move. April CPI is expected to rise to about 3.7% year over year and 0.6% month over month, with a 2.7% core rate; headlines also include Republican scrutiny of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
U.S. stock futures fell ahead of the April CPI report, with Nasdaq-100 futures down about 0.7%, S&P 500 futures down roughly 0.4%, and Dow futures flat, as investors weigh potential inflation signals and Fed policy amid higher energy prices supported by Middle East tensions. Oil prices continued to rally, while broader headlines included President Trump’s China trip and AI/trade talks, adding geopolitical fodder for markets ahead of the inflation data release.
April inflation is expected to rise to about 3.8% year over year, up 0.6 percentage points from March, as energy costs and oil prices boosted by the Iran conflict spill into prices; core inflation is seen up 0.3% month over month, while wage growth cooled to around 3.4% in March, potentially keeping inflation ahead of wages and worsening affordability; gas averages about $4.50 a gallon with crude oil trading above $101 a barrel.
U.S. stocks finished the day higher with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at intraday and closing highs and the Dow up ~0.2%, while futures sat near flat ahead of April’s CPI release. Oil rose after Trump called the Iran ceasefire weak, and traders looked ahead to earnings from Under Armour, Vodafone, On Holding, Aramark, eToro and Tencent Music. Six of 11 GICS sectors gained led by energy, with communication services the day’s laggard. In after-hours trading, Hims & Hers, GitLab and Cleanspark moved on earnings guidance and restructuring news, as markets prepare for CPI figures, wages data, and treasury budget figures.
Stock index futures rose modestly as traders brace for the upcoming CPI report, signaling cautious optimism on Wall Street about inflation data and its potential impact on Federal Reserve policy.
Inflation is reaccelerating, led by oil, with April CPI expected at 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year. Markets price in no Fed rate cuts and potential ECB tightening; despite higher inflation, bond markets show a dovish Fed bias as real yields fall and inflation swaps rise, making the CPI release a key catalyst that could trigger a major shift in Treasury yields and the dollar.
Australia's Q1 CPI rose 4.09% year-on-year and 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, cooler than the 4.2% forecast but the highest in over two years; March inflation climbed 4.6%, underscoring persistent price pressures and keeping the case for further RBA rate hikes on the table as officials say inflation will stay above the 2%–3% target for some time. GDP grew 2.6% year-on-year in Q4, with oil-price risks adding to policy challenges ahead of the next RBA meeting.
Asian equities fell as tech shares slid and crude prices surged, weighing on risk appetite; Japan’s core CPI rose 1.8% in March but remained below the BOJ’s 2% target, keeping policy expectations in focus ahead of next week’s BOJ meeting, while other regional indexes (Korea, China, Hong Kong) softened and sentiment stayed cautious amid elevated oil and ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions.
March CPI rose 3.3% year over year, driven by a 21% jump in gasoline prices; core CPI increased 0.2% for the month and 2.6% over 12 months, while food costs were flat. The energy shock is the primary driver of headline inflation, with non-energy inflation remaining modest. Potential follow-on price pressures could come from supply bottlenecks, as geopolitical tensions around Iran add to energy market volatility ahead of peace talks.
U.S. stock futures were little changed overnight as investors weighed a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and awaited the March CPI inflation report; Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 futures edged up while Dow futures hovered near flat, with oil prices modestly higher and BlackRock earnings in focus for the next session.
U.S. stocks are higher on Friday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 set to finish the week up as traders weigh a hotter March CPI (headline +0.9%, core +0.2%) against a record-low April consumer sentiment reading, while inflation expectations tick higher. Investors are also eyeing direct U.S.-Iran peace talks and related geopolitical developments as notable catalysts.