All articles tagged with #cpi
August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month (versus 0.2% expected), lifting core inflation to about 2.4% year over year, while headline CPI rose 3.4% YoY and 0.4% MoM. With oil rebounding toward $100 a barrel, markets price in roughly a 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike at next week's meeting, though officials remain divided on how quickly inflation will cool.
August’s CPI rose 3.4% year over year, unchanged from July, as energy costs fueled gasoline and other fuels higher amid Middle East tensions; diesel reached a record $6/gal and jet fuel pushed airfare up, with global oil topping $100 as oil supply risks persist. Economists caution the path back to 2% is still uncertain, suggesting inflation could stay stubborn and prime the Fed for possible rate hikes.
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month (above expectations), keeping odds of a September Fed rate hike intact and triggering volatile moves in gold and silver as traders weigh higher-for-longer policy, with a firmer dollar, higher yields, and oil hovering around $100+.
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, with the core CPI up 0.3%, leaving annual inflation at 3.4%. A sharp 3.9% jump in gasoline prices helped drive the monthly increase, while food costs were largely flat. Core inflation remains elevated at about 2.4% year over year, and the report fed bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates next week, with markets pricing roughly a 90% likelihood of a move. Economists also note potential methodological changes in the upcoming PCE inflation release that could nudge core inflation lower by a few basis points.
U.S. Treasuries sit near multi-year highs as August CPI shows persistent inflation, boosting odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike to about 90% ahead of next week’s meeting. The 2-year yield rose to roughly 4.57%, the 10-year to about 4.91%, and the 30-year around 5.32%. CPI rose 0.4% in August (3.4% year over year) with core CPI up 0.3% (2.4% y/y). The report is the Fed’s last major inflation read before the decision, as oil rebounds above $100 and a Treasury buyback adds market pressure.
US inflation held at 3.4% in August with core inflation at 2.4%; gasoline pricing drove about a third of the 0.4% monthly rise as oil prices surged amid Middle East tensions, sending yields higher and lifting bets on a September Fed rate hike before its policy meeting.
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.4% in August from a year earlier, with the CPI up 0.4% month over month and gasoline prices rising about 3.9%, accounting for a third of the monthly increase. Excluding food and energy, core inflation was 2.4% year over year and 0.3% for the month, suggesting broader price pressures beyond fuel. Traders priced in roughly a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. Tech prices led gains as software and hardware costs climbed and Apple raised prices on older iPhone models due to chip costs, underscoring inflation risks and the case for tighter policy.
Gold rose about 1.5% after August CPI showed hotter core inflation, keeping the Fed rate-hike question in play. While inflation remains above target, the metal’s safe-haven bid and market pricing of higher rates support prices, though higher rates cap gains. Analysts see pullbacks as buying opportunities, amid debt dynamics that could limit how high rates go and keep volatility ahead of the Fed decision.
August CPI rose 0.4% for the month (3.4% year over year) while core CPI gained 0.3% (2.4% YoY); energy costs, especially gasoline, helped drive the increase, with shelter also up 0.3%. The data solidify expectations of a quarter-point Fed rate hike at the upcoming meeting, with markets pricing roughly 90% odds of a move as energy prices and inflation trends influence policy.
The August Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core inflation at 0.2% from July. Traders see the CPI release as pivotal for the Fed’s September decision: a hotter print could justify a rate hike, while signs of disinflation keep policymakers’ options open. Oil at multi-month highs and gasoline around $4.27 a gallon add to household costs, and mortgage rates have climbed toward 7%, worsening affordability even as the labor market remains resilient. The data reflect conditions prior to the latest oil surge, so outcomes may hinge on Friday’s release and the Fed’s reaction to it.
Friday's August CPI release will be the last inflation datapoint before the Fed's decision next week. Expectations call for a 0.4% monthly CPI rise (3.4% year over year) and a 0.2% core increase (2.4% y/y). Thursday's PPI data boosted odds of a 25 basis-point hike to around 73%, though a surprise to the upside or downside could sway the decision; investors will also watch how the CPI feeds into the PCE index due later in September, which the Fed uses for its inflation gauge.
Stocks fell as oil jumped to $100 a barrel and the 10-year yield spiked, weighing on equities ahead of Friday’s CPI report, with Oracle earnings on the calendar.
U.S. producer prices rose 0.4% in August, in line with economists’ expectations, with the core PPI up 0.2% as food and energy were excluded. Year-over-year PPI climbed 5.4% and core PPI 4.6%. The data precede Friday’s CPI report, which analysts expect to show a monthly uptick but again a similar year-over-year pace, keeping scrutiny on inflation. Markets are pricing roughly a 64% chance of a Fed rate hike in September and about 90% by December, aided by hawkish signals from Fed officials.
China’s August inflation rebounded as producer prices rose 3.8% year-on-year (vs a 3.6% forecast) and consumer prices gained 0.8% y/y, driven by energy costs, base effects, and solid high-tech demand, but underlying domestic demand remains soft with services muted and consumer goods prices slipping. Core CPI rose 1.0%, while electronics prices climbed on memory-chip shortages. Analysts say the pickup reflects weak demand and overcapacity rather than a durable upturn, and PPI could ease toward deflation next year if energy flows normalize. Weak July retail sales and urban investment, plus youth urban unemployment at 17.9%, keep Beijing under pressure and some forecasters trimming 2026 growth.
Investors are bracing for next week’s inflation readings (PPI on Thursday and CPI on Sept. 11) to judge whether the Fed will hike rates at its Sept. 15–16 meeting. Economists expect August CPI to rise about 0.4% with a 0.2% core gain, though cooling in June–July has kept the debate alive. A hotter print could lift rate-hike odds and push yields higher, while a cooler print could reinforce expectations that rates stay unchanged. The market has risen in 2026 but remains sensitive to inflation data and policy signals.