Historic CAPE Peak Signals Possible Bear Market, but Time in Market Still Wins
TL;DR Summary
The S&P 500’s CAPE (Shiller P/E) ratio has surged above 40 for an extended period—the second time in about 156 years—marking ultra-high valuations last seen around the dot-com era and preceding notable downturns. While this signals heightened near-term risk, history shows that time in the market tends to trump market timing, with bear markets typically shorter than bull runs and long-run gains persisting despite volatility.
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