NOAA projects record-smashing El Niño set to peak this fall and winter

NOAA says the developing El Niño could become the strongest on record, likely peaking in late fall to early winter and boosting global temperatures amid a warming world. While background warming may modulate signals, scientists expect unprecedented heat and regionally varied impacts—wet conditions from California to Florida and milder/drier winters in parts of the Midwest—though effects will vary by location and remain uncertain. The event is likely to push 2027 to the hottest-year record (with 2026 possibly joining), influenced by the hotter baseline from climate change.