Atlantic Conveyor at Risk: New Analysis Suggests AMOC Collapse Could Be Locked In by 2100

A climate-model study, using Greenland ice melt scenarios, suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may already be locked in toward collapse, with a 10% chance under peak 2025 emissions, rising to 23% in harsher melt scenarios—and potentially 100% by 2100 in the worst case. A collapse would trigger dramatic regional impacts, including sea-level rise along the U.S. East Coast, cooler temperatures for parts of Europe, and more extreme weather. The work is a preprint and debated, but it underscores the urgency of rapid emissions reductions to avert severe climate outcomes.