Iran's Oil System Poised to Weather Shutdowns, but Gas Output Faces Greater Risk

The Center on Global Energy Policy argues that Iran’s oil sector can likely weather production shut-ins caused by the U.S. blockade, with potential cuts up to about half of pre-war output to avoid full storage, and a relatively quick recovery to around 70% of capacity if the blockade eases. However, gas fields are at greater risk due to lack of outlets for associated hydrocarbons, requiring rationing among exports, power, industry, and domestic use, and long-run capacity could erode from sanctions and financing/tech constraints. The analysis covers key Iranian oil regions (Khuzestan, West Karoun, offshore fields) and the giant South Pars gas field, noting that while oil restarts are typically feasible, gas output faces tighter constraints that could limit overall capacity over time.