Zelensky Confirms Resumed US Missile Alerts Amid Oslo Talks and Deepening US-Ukraine Rift

Key points

• Zelensky confirmed that advance warnings for Russian ballistic missile attacks have resumed, a service seemingly suspended by the White House last week.
• The Oslo meeting included Zelensky, US envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and EU/UK security officials.
• Zelensky offered to halt long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries if the US provided Patriot interceptors, which the Pentagon has blocked despite funding from other nations.
• Zelensky opposed a proposed trilateral summit involving Putin, Trump, and Xi Jinping that would exclude Ukraine, stating 'There can be nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.'
• At least nine people were killed in Ukraine on Tuesday, including victims of a drone strike on the Kyiv-Odesa highway.

Background

This development follows a ten-day crisis in US-Ukraine relations triggered by Trump’s lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel and a proposed 'energy ceasefire' that Kyiv implemented but Moscow ignored. Recent archive reports indicate that intelligence sharing was suspended after disputes over Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, leading to unannounced missile strikes on Kyiv infrastructure in mid-October. Additionally, restrictions on Starshield satellite services have hindered Ukraine’s ability to conduct mid-range drone strikes, exacerbating concerns about US reliability as a security partner.

How outlets are covering it

The Guardian and BBC report that Zelensky expressed gratitude for the resumed intelligence sharing, describing it as vital for civilian safety. However, the BBC notes that Witkoff did not attend the press conference, with Støre emphasizing that Europe must be included in peace negotiations. The Guardian highlights that Trump continues to blame Zelensky for the lack of a deal and has publicly aligned with Moscow, including asking Putin to release a US prisoner. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas questioned the US’s honesty as a broker, noting Witkoff’s frequent meetings with Putin versus limited engagement with Kyiv. Conversely, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as reported by the Guardian, denied any deliberate political directive to harm Ukraine, attributing Patriot shortages to global demand and Starshield issues to technical constraints, though he failed to fully explain the recent curtailments.

Why it matters

The resumption of intelligence sharing is a critical tactical victory for Ukraine, potentially saving lives during Russian missile attacks. However, the broader diplomatic crisis signals a shift in US foreign policy, with Washington appearing to prioritize Moscow’s demands over Kyiv’s security needs. This could undermine European support for Ukraine and complicate future peace negotiations, as the US is perceived by some allies to be favoring Russian maximalist positions. The exclusion of Ukraine from potential high-level summits further risks marginalizing Kyiv in decisions affecting its sovereignty and future.

What to watch

Zelensky plans to take the 'elements of peace' discussed in Oslo to St Petersburg for further negotiations. European leaders, including Stubb and Støre, will meet with other European colleagues to coordinate a unified stance. The US and Ukraine will continue to negotiate over Patriot missile deliveries and Starshield access. A potential trilateral summit involving Putin, Trump, and Xi is expected next month, though Zelensky has rejected any deal excluding Ukraine. The situation will likely remain volatile as Russia continues its attacks and the US-EU-Ukraine relationship remains strained.