Trump's Bid for a Great Power Concert Risks Alienating Europe

Key points

• Putin’s proposal for a summit in China involving the US, Russia, and China excludes Ukraine and Europe, raising fears of a 'Yalta 2.0' that sidelines European interests.
• Supporters of the US policy argue that accommodating Russian spheres of influence will widen the gap between Moscow and Beijing, freeing US resources for the Indo-Pacific.
• Critics argue the historical analogy to the 19th-century Concert of Europe fails because current great-power conflicts are in their early stages, not post-war settlements.
• European leaders fear that US exclusion from negotiations will lead to a 'paradigm of sponsorship' where China and Russia gain political and economic influence as US presence wanes.
• The US strategy includes pressure on Europe to accept US monopolies in technology and AI, while potentially acquiring control of Nord Stream pipeline assets to leverage European energy dependence.

Background

This development follows earlier reports in October 2026 that Moscow proposed a three-way summit in Shenzhen to dictate peace terms, excluding Kyiv. It also follows September 2026 UN General Assembly statements by Zelensky, who sought security guarantees amid Trump’s push for a rapid conflict resolution. Previous coverage noted that while the US pressures Kyiv, European nations remain divided on support for Ukraine, with some seeking backdoor negotiations with Moscow.

How outlets are covering it

19FortyFive’s Andrew Michta argues that the US attempt to split Russia from China is a miscalculation that will destroy NATO cohesion and increase the likelihood of a US-China war in the Indo-Pacific. He contends that excluding Europe from peace talks invalidates the alliance and pushes Europe toward Chinese economic and political influence. In contrast, Michael Hudson, in an interview with Glenn Diesen, frames the trilateral summit as a US effort to lock in its sphere of influence over Europe, specifically by acquiring Nord Stream assets to control European energy supplies and prevent European strategic autonomy. Hudson notes that Russia is indifferent to Europe, focusing instead on Asian markets, and that the US aims to prevent Europe from diversifying its energy and technology sources. Informat.ro highlights that while there is no coordinated conspiracy, the US, Russia, and China all benefit from a fragmented EU, with the US pressuring European regulatory autonomy and Russia using disinformation to weaken consensus on sanctions.

Why it matters

The potential collapse of transatlantic trust could lead to a permanent realignment of European security and economic policy, reducing US influence in Europe and increasing Chinese leverage. If the US prioritizes a deal with Russia and China over European interests, it may accelerate the end of the post-Cold War order, leaving Europe vulnerable to energy shocks and geopolitical isolation.

What to watch

Watch for the outcome of the proposed trilateral summit in China and any subsequent shifts in European defense spending or energy policy. Monitor European political elections, where opposition parties critical of pro-war stances are gaining support, and observe any US moves to acquire Nord Stream assets or impose technology restrictions on the EU.