All articles tagged with #institute for the study of war
Putin claimed Russia had captured 2.44 million square kilometers of Ukraine—an implausible figure four times Ukraine’s pre-2014 size—likely a transcript error; ISW and other analysts show Russia has net territorial losses in 2025–26, while Ukraine has recaptured ground, indicating the claim is propaganda rather than fact.
ISW reports Russian forces lost about 116 square kilometers in April 2026, the first net territorial loss since the 2024 invasion, with momentum slowing as Ukrainian counterattacks, mid-range strikes, and logistical constraints bite; gains from late 2025 to April 2026 fell far short of the year-ago period, and Moscow increasingly relies on infiltration tactics rather than holding territory, while seasonal mud and air campaign strains compound battlefield constraints.
ISW says Russia appears to have seized Pokrovsk after nearly two years of fighting, but gains beyond the town are limited and do not yet signal a broader breakthrough in Donetsk Oblast; Ukrainian forces have not been seen in Pokrovsk since late January 2026, and nearby Fortress Belt positions remain out of reach.
Russian forces are advancing along the front line in Ukraine, with a focus on the Avdiivka area, as they prepare for a renewed push in the summer. The Institute for the Study of War's maps illustrate the ongoing offensives and Russian advances in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Ukraine is working on fortifications, including anti-tank ditches and infantry fighting positions, but concerns remain about the pace of development. Despite Ukraine's efforts, Russia is expected to continue its offensive operations through spring to exploit Ukrainian equipment shortages before Western security assistance arrives.
Russia has reduced its aerial presence over eastern Ukraine after suffering significant aircraft losses, with Ukraine claiming to have destroyed 13 Russian aircraft since mid-February, including Su-34 and Su-35 jets. The Institute for the Study of War estimates that Russia has lost approximately $1 billion worth of aircraft since the start of 2024, prompting a decrease in Russian aviation activity. Despite these losses, Russia continues to pursue tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, risking further aviation losses in the process.
Russian forces have made confirmed gains in Ukraine's Donetsk oblast, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), with advances near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces entering Sieverne and capturing Lastochkyne, while other maps indicate advances in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. The ISW believes Moscow's forces have regained "theater-wide initiative" and could pursue offensive operations, prompting Ukraine to prepare for battle and claim the downing of a Russian aircraft. French President Macron has not ruled out the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine, while Ukrainian forces report shooting down multiple Russian attack drones and cruise missiles.
Russia has reportedly constructed an 18-mile defensive line in Ukraine using over 2,000 railway carriages, with satellite images showing the line running from Olenivka to Volnovakha and Mariupol. The purpose of this barrier is debated, with some suggesting it's for defense against potential Ukrainian attacks, while others believe it may serve other purposes. Russia's use of anti-tank ditches, trenches, barricades, and minefields has proven effective in withholding Ukrainian advances, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to breach these layered defenses.
Russia is drafting hundreds of thousands of troops for major assaults in Ukraine, but it may not have enough weapons to equip them all, according to military experts. The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia's military reserves are not ready for combat and its production rates cannot support a large number of conscripts or reservists. This shortage of weapons could significantly impact the outcome of the war, as Russia has been recruiting poorly-trained soldiers for intense assaults on the front lines in Ukraine, resulting in major losses and failed advances.
Russia is facing a shortage of weapons to equip its troops amid a potential surge in personnel being drafted for the conflict in Ukraine, as per the Institute for the Study of War. Despite the belief in bottomless reserves, Russia's military-industrial complex is unable to support a larger mobilization, with only a third of reserve units equipped. The country's military production rates would need significant growth to back extensive offensive operations, and even sustained military campaigns may not bridge the gap. This shortage could have a significant impact on the outcome of the war, as Russia recruits poorly-trained soldiers for assaults in Ukraine, resulting in major losses and limited progress on the front lines.
Russian forces have intensified assaults in eastern Ukraine, particularly towards Bakhmut, ahead of planned larger offensive operations, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Ukrainian troops are reportedly destroying Russian tanks and armored vehicles, but Russia still has a "large reserve of resources." Maps from ISW show Russian advances in Donetsk oblast, with plans for localized and larger offensive operations. Reports suggest Russia aims to capture more Ukrainian territory, posing a risk to Ukraine's resources and stability. U.S. officials anticipate a long war and emphasize the need for continued military assistance to Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War's analysis shows Russian forces making confirmed gains in three key areas along Ukraine's front line, prompting Ukraine to transition to a more defensive posture as winter sets in. Russian forces are intensifying efforts near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, and pushing into territory briefly liberated by Ukrainian troops over the summer. The ongoing positional engagements are part of a 600-mile front where both Russian and Ukrainian forces are probing each other's positions seeking local advantage.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly given his Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu until early October to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive, according to an insider source. The Russian military command may be ordering continuous counterattacks in an effort to undermine support for and confidence in Ukrainian forces, while framing Russian defensive operations as victories. However, the success of this strategy depends on preventing Ukrainian forces from breaking through and liberating large areas.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will not be definitively halted by winter weather, as Ukrainian forces are advancing on foot rather than relying on vehicles. The success of the counteroffensive will depend on the balance of forces between Russia and Ukraine, as well as Western aid. Ukrainian troops have reportedly continued to advance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with reports suggesting that they have cleared Russian positions between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka.
Ukrainian forces are making small advances in their counteroffensive to recapture Russian-occupied territory, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Recent maps show progress south of Robotyne and west of Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia oblast. Ukrainian forces have also achieved success near Klishchiivka in Donetsk Oblast. The counteroffensive has a limited time frame before the weather worsens, but Ukraine plans to continue regardless. Military analysts note that while progress has been made, the Russian military does not appear to be pressured enough to collapse. The outcome of the counteroffensive remains uncertain.
Ukraine's counteroffensive to retake occupied Russian territory has been slower than expected, with marginal gains in some areas. Maps from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) show the progress of the counteroffensive, with Ukrainian forces making advances in Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia regions. However, Russian forces have built formidable defenses, hindering Ukraine's push. Ukrainian forces have recaptured about 97 square kilometers of territory since the start of the counteroffensive, roughly the same area captured by Russian forces over the past six months.