All articles tagged with #macro economics
Fed Governor Waller’s tilt toward holding rates in September trims the odds of a hike to about 50% (even as guidance suggests the path may still move toward zero). With August payrolls and CPI data on deck, the outcome remains data‑dependent, but the piece touts a contrarian bullish September, noting that several top performers since June are crypto-related and hinting at crypto FOMO later in the month.
The March 2026 issue analyzes how the ongoing Iran war challenges the Fed’s “gradual print” balance-sheet expansion, comparing current projections to past QE magnitudes and noting that a prolonged energy shock could force a bigger monetary response. It links geopolitics to potential stagflation, outlines how higher energy prices could pressure households and Treasury yields, and emphasizes a three-pillar investment approach (profitable equities, commodities/hard money, cash equivalents) to navigate volatility. The piece also highlights the author’s new sci-fi thriller and encourages readers to pursue longer-term, immersive activities beyond daily news cycles.
Despite geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices, the S&P 500 has remained surprisingly resilient in the 2020s, with wide drawdowns in some years but only a ~1% YTD drop in 2026. The piece argues markets are forward-looking and sometimes teflon, potentially reflecting rational investor behavior, while warning that complacency could sow a bigger correction later (a Minsky moment). It also discusses related themes on The Compound with Barry Ritholtz and Blair duQuesnay and touches on questions about job quitting and concentrated stock positions.
The article argues that gold is the clearer buy for 2026 due to macro conditions—rising deficits and money supply, plus a Fed stance that could support gold—while Bitcoin lagged in 2025 and faces questions about its digital‑gold narrative. Past outperformance by Bitcoin isn’t a guarantee for 2026, and the piece suggests gold’s store‑of‑value appeal may again outperform Bitcoin amid ongoing monetary expansion and fiscal deficits.