All articles tagged with #options trading
Michael Burry says he has no position in SpaceX and rejected bearish options because they were too expensive, while arguing SpaceX’s near-$3 trillion valuation dwarfs the company’s under-$20 billion in annual revenue.
Textron (TXT) is highlighted as a stealthy aerospace/defense play with a solid first quarter beat, a shift toward pure defense backed by a $19B backlog, and a forward earnings multiple around 13.7x (below its 5-year average of 18x). With macro headwinds weighing on broader aviation, the stock trades at a discount even as defense demand persists, suggesting upside as the market re-rates. The piece advocates a defined-risk bullish approach via a Sep 95/110 call spread for about $4.65 to capture upside without owning the stock.
Bitcoin rebounded above $60,000 after a sharp 2026 decline but is down about 27% on the year and roughly half from its all-time high. Despite the drop, crypto-related stocks drew heavy options activity, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF among the most traded tickers. Two notable trades aimed to profit from differing outlooks: one trader sold 125/180 call diagonals on Strategy to benefit if the stock stays below $125, and another placed a bullish diagonal on Coinbase by selling near-term calls and buying longer-dated calls, targeting a move above roughly $183 by August. The moves show a mix of bearish and bullish bets as investors weigh a potential rebound against ongoing crypto volatility, while bitcoin is viewed by some as resilient money.
The software stock rally continues, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) up about 35% from April lows after Friday’s gains led by ServiceNow and Workday. Options activity is extremely bullish: IGV calls outrun puts by roughly 4-to-1, with more than 50,000 IGV calls traded and even higher volumes in individual software names, signaling strong upside bets despite some hedging. Traders compare IGV’s strength to semiconductor dispersion and expect mean reversion to persist, noting notable options contracts like the June 18 105 strike and December 90 strike as part of outsized bets.
Investors poured into bets on higher U.S. yields via heavy put activity in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), with about 1.4 million contracts traded and puts outnumbering calls. Big trades included 15,000 June 75 puts betting on an ~11% drop by mid-June and a 3,000‑lot Jan 2028 84 put and 3,000‑lot 84 call straddle, a roughly $3 million position, reflecting expectations of a large move in TLT as CPI data, higher oil and potential Fed leadership changes roil fixed income.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is slated to report Q1 results on May 11; the options market is pricing in about a 16.9% move in either direction, signaling earnings-driven volatility. Wall Street expects a narrower loss per share of $0.04 on revenue of around $4.09 million, with investors watching for signs of demand from major hardware sales (including an $8.4 million, 108-qubit order from India’s CDAC and $5.7 million in two 9-qubit Novera systems). The company aims to reach more than 1,000 qubits in the long term, while the stock has rallied recently but remains down year-to-date. Analysts publish a Moderate Buy rating with a $30.67 average price target, implying potential upside if results meet or beat expectations.
AMD’s May 8 weekly options imply roughly a 9% post-earnings move, with traders loading up on higher-strike calls (350–400) and notable put activity around 300 ahead of the first-quarter results due after the market close.
Alphabet's shares surge toward a $5 trillion market cap and could overtake Nvidia as the world's most valuable company, with options pricing suggesting roughly a 50% chance Alphabet hits $400 before Nvidia's May earnings; Nvidia stock has fallen on a WSJ report about OpenAI revenue, making the leadership swap contingent on upcoming results.
Ahead of Meta's earnings, fundamentals look solid with ad-pricing improvements driving roughly 30% year-over-year revenue growth, but the chart is mixed around the 150-day moving average. The options market prices in about a 7.5% move post-announcement, with notable buying in 620–675 strike calls. The suggested approach is a call spread risk reversal: sell 625 puts and 750 calls to finance buying 680 at-the-money calls. This lowers risk and caps upside (roughly 8%), while historically delivering a higher win rate (around 29% annualized) compared with buying the stock or near-term calls. Buying Meta stock into earnings has been a coin flip with modest average gains; the spread strategy aims for better risk-adjusted returns.
Options traders are pricing an 8–9% post-earnings move for Micron (MU) with bullish call activity ahead of results, signaling upside expectations; the implied trading range is roughly $430–$510, and the skew shows calls cheaper than puts, underscoring optimism.
Options traders signal trouble and systematic funds are set to reduce exposure to U.S. stocks, with the VIX hovering in the high-20s as major indexes hover around key moving averages. After a stretch of weekly losses, investors await what could be more downside next week, with tech leadership resurging and Goldman Sachs forecasting about $36 billion of selling from trend-following funds.
Micron stock has surged this year, but the analysis argues the smart-money view remains calm rather than panicked, with volatility skew suggesting limited downside anxiety and potential upside. A key takeaway is a cost-efficient March 20 bull call spread (430/440) offering a breakeven near 435.15 and up to ~94% potential payout, driven by AI memory demand. Street data show MU as a Strong Buy with an average target of about 404.73, implying modest downside risk over the next year amid an AI-driven memory cycle.
Palantir stock is weakening ahead of Q4 results, trading around $149 after dipping below its 200-day average. Macro Risk Advisors suggests a risk-defined trade: buy $162.50 calls and sell $182.50 calls expiring Friday, aiming to profit from a potential post-earnings rally with an estimated payout near 10.5-to-1, leveraging patterns where negative T-3 readings have preceded sharp upside moves in subsequent days.
Options trader 'Captain Condor' and his group of about 1,000 investors suffered a $50 million loss, primarily due to the risky use of the Martingale betting system on a popular options strategy, highlighting the dangers of retail trading in complex derivatives.
Options trader 'Captain Condor' and his group of about 1,000 investors suffered a $50 million wipeout after using a risky Martingale betting system on Iron Condor options strategies, highlighting the dangers of retail involvement in complex derivatives amid a booming U.S. options market.