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Tariff Shortfall Pushes 2026 Deficit to $2.1 Trillion
economy13 days ago

Tariff Shortfall Pushes 2026 Deficit to $2.1 Trillion

A Congressional Budget Office forecast shows the 2026 federal deficit rising to about $2.1 trillion, roughly $200 billion above February’s estimate, largely due to weaker tariff revenue after the Supreme Court struck down Trump-era tariffs. Tariff and customs receipts are now expected about $250 billion below earlier projections, with about $100 billion of collected tariff duties already refunded. In the first 10 months of fiscal 2026 the deficit was $1.8 trillion as outlays grew $308 billion and revenues rose $139 billion, aided by a July payment shift; spending on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid accounted for most of the increase, and net interest payments rose by $117 billion, prompting economists to warn that borrowing could exceed $2 trillion this year.

via Mediaite|
#cbo#deficit#economy
politics1 month ago

Johnson readies GOP policy bill push ahead of budget markup

House Speaker Mike Johnson plans to move forward with a GOP‑only policy bill as soon as Wednesday, starting with a Budget Committee budget-resolution markup that could kick off a months‑long reconciliation process funded largely by so‑called fraud cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and other programs to finance priorities including Iran policy. The plan faces skepticism from at‑risk Republicans and hinges on how offsets and CBO scoring will look, with the Senate yet to produce its own resolution. Talks at Camp David and pressure from conservative members have pushed the effort, while lawmakers await further details on the bill’s price tag and pay‑for provisions.

via Politico|
#budget#cbo#gop
politics1 month ago

GOP seeks new CBO scoring as reconciliation plan hinges on fraud cuts

A large bloc of House Republicans will meet with CBO Director Phillip Swagel to press for a different scoring approach for their party-line reconciliation bill, aiming to finance it largely through cuts to fraud in Medicare, Medicaid and other programs. However, under current CBO scoring the price tag remains sizable, prompting leadership to map a strategy with deficit hawks at Camp David and push for an offset plan amid broader spending fights.

via Politico|
#budget#cbo#congress
Borrowing at Pace: U.S. Debt Service Now Hits About $24B Weekly
business1 month ago

Borrowing at Pace: U.S. Debt Service Now Hits About $24B Weekly

Nine months into FY2026, the U.S. Treasury is borrowing about $155 billion per month (roughly $39 billion per week) while net interest on the public debt runs at about $857 billion for the year (around $23.8 billion per week). The national debt stands near $39.4 trillion, and rising Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid costs are pushing deficits higher, prompting calls for entitlement reforms and higher revenues to avert an unsustainable fiscal path.

via Yahoo Finance|
#business#cbo#debt
US Deficit Surges to $1.4 Trillion in FY2026 Nine Months In
national1 month ago

US Deficit Surges to $1.4 Trillion in FY2026 Nine Months In

Nine months into FY2026, the U.S. deficit reached about $1.4 trillion as outlays ($5.5 trillion) surpassed receipts ($4.2 trillion). Most of the shortfall stems from entitlement programs (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid) and reduced corporate tax revenue tied to policy changes, while individual taxes rose. The debt surpassed 100% of GDP and interest payments neared $1 trillion, prompting calls for entitlement reform and a bipartisan plan to restore fiscal sustainability.

via The Center Square|
#cbo#debt#deficit
CBO analysis: Golden Dome could cost $1.2 trillion over 20 years
defense3 months ago

CBO analysis: Golden Dome could cost $1.2 trillion over 20 years

A new CBO analysis estimates the Golden Dome missile-defense architecture could cost about $1.2 trillion over 20 years—far above the White House's $175 billion target—largely due to a space-based interceptor layer; the system would cover the U.S. but would not be an impenetrable shield against a major peer attack, and long-term costs depend on architecture details the DoD has not publicly disclosed, with some items potentially funded from other accounts and space-based interceptors possibly omitted for cost reasons.

via Federal News Network|
#budget-estimate#cbo#defense
CBO flags $1.2 trillion price tag for Trump's Golden Dome and questions its effectiveness
politics3 months ago

CBO flags $1.2 trillion price tag for Trump's Golden Dome and questions its effectiveness

The Congressional Budget Office estimates Trump's Golden Dome missile-defense program would cost about $1.2 trillion over 20 years, far higher than the initial $175 billion, and warns it may be vulnerable to a full-scale attack by Russia or China, raising doubts about whether the system can be effectively deployed, even as SpaceX and Lockheed Martin win contracts for space-based interceptor prototypes.

via BBC|
#budget-overrun#cbo#golden-dome
CBO pegs Trump’s 'Golden Dome' at $1.2 trillion over 20 years
world-news3 months ago

CBO pegs Trump’s 'Golden Dome' at $1.2 trillion over 20 years

The Congressional Budget Office estimates Trump’s space-based “Golden Dome” missile-defense system would cost about $1.2 trillion over 20 years—far above the president’s prior $175 billion figure—though the analysis notes it reflects an illustrative approach rather than a formal administration estimate due to limited Defense Department details. Ordered by Trump in his first week in office, the plan envisions ground- and space-based defenses to detect and intercept missiles at all stages and aims to be fully operational before January 2029, drawing inspiration from Israel’s Iron Dome. Congress has already approved roughly $24 billion for the initiative, while critics say it would largely benefit defense contractors; earlier space-based estimates alone could total up to $542 billion.

via AP News|
#cbo#defense-spending#missile-defense
Domestic Deployments Cost US Nearly $500M in 2025, CBO Finds
politics6 months ago

Domestic Deployments Cost US Nearly $500M in 2025, CBO Finds

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Trump administration’s deployment of National Guard and active-duty troops to multiple U.S. cities in 2025 cost about $496 million through December, with ongoing costs around $93 million per month if levels stay the same; the Los Angeles deployment largely ended but 100 guards remained, and the D.C. deployment could run about $55 million per month at roughly 2,950 personnel, while future costs remain highly uncertain due to legal challenges and scale.

via CBS News|
#cbo#costs#deployments
politics11 months ago

US Faces Potential Population Decline Due to Immigration Policies

The Congressional Budget Office predicts that due to Trump and GOP policies, US net immigration will be 1.6 million lower this year, potentially reducing federal spending but also decreasing tax revenue and economic growth. Meanwhile, Congress is actively debating issues like Russia sanctions, offshore wind projects, Epstein files, government funding, and judicial appointments, reflecting a highly contentious political environment.

via Politico|
#cbo#congress#gop