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Gary Shilling

All articles tagged with #gary shilling

business24 days ago•4 min saved

Bear-Market Warning: Recession Likely This Year, S&P May Dive 30% by End-2026

Economist Gary Shilling says a US recession is almost inevitable this year and the S&P 500 could drop as much as 30% by year-end 2026, citing stretched valuations (Shiller CAPE near highs, price-to-sales/book at record levels), a cooling consumer, a frozen housing market due to higher rates, and weak business investment outside AI-related capex. He argues only a fiscal stimulus burst or unexpectedly strong consumer demand could avert a downturn, both unlikely, signaling a significant market correction in the near term.

via Business Insider|

#business #gary-shilling #recession

economics2 years ago•4 min saved

"Top Economist Forecasts 3-4 Year Housing Market Revival Amid Sharp Decline in Market Activity"

Economist Gary Shilling predicts a considerable revival in housing activity over the next three to four years as the frozen housing market struggles with high mortgage rates and low inventory levels. Other experts emphasize the need for interest rate reductions, construction pricing changes, and zoning modifications to increase housing supply and affordability. The primary issue facing the housing market is the imbalance of buyers versus sellers due to low inventory levels and pent-up demand.

via Fortune|

#economics #frozen-housing-market #gary-shilling

economics2 years ago•5 min saved

"Economist Warns of Impending US Recession Amid Rate Hikes and Softening Labor Market"

Economist Gary Shilling, known for predicting the 2008 housing crash, warns that the U.S. may be heading towards a recession despite the current economic improvements. He points to the trajectory of the labor market and historical evidence that interest rate hikes lead to recessions. The Federal Reserve's delay in considering interest rate cuts and the tightening labor market contribute to the uncertainty, leading consumers to cut back on spending and indicating potential changes in the economy.

via Fortune|

#economics #federal-reserve #gary-shilling

finance2 years ago•5 min saved

Navigating Inflation: The Appeal of Long-Term Treasury Bonds and Short-Term Bond ETFs

Two veteran analysts, Gary Shilling and James Grant, offer contrasting views on the 30-year Treasury bond. Shilling, a bull on bonds, argues that inflation will subside and believes in the long-term value of Treasury bonds. Grant, on the other hand, is bearish on government bonds and the dollar, favoring gold as a store of value. Both analysts anticipate a recession, but for different reasons. Shilling cites an inverted yield curve and other statistics, while Grant blames artificially suppressed interest rates. Shilling's historical analysis shows that holding long-dated bonds has performed well, despite recent bond price crashes. Grant warns of the potential for politicians to impose an inflation tax and advises caution for bondholders.

via Forbes|

#finance #gary-shilling #inflation