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Military Analysis

All articles tagged with #military analysis

Zelensky Proposes Energy Truce as Russian Winter Strike Campaign Intensifies
geopolitics2 days ago

Zelensky Proposes Energy Truce as Russian Winter Strike Campaign Intensifies

President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on October 11 that Ukraine is prepared to halt long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries if Moscow ceases attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. This reciprocal proposal comes as Russia intensifies its winter strike campaign, launching approximately 1,450 glide bombs, 75 missiles, and 1,640 drones in the past week. While Kyiv seeks a mutual de-escalation with verifiable guarantees, Washington has urged unilateral restraint to protect global fuel markets, a stance Kyiv rejects. Meanwhile, Russian forces have begun targeting critical infrastructure in Kyiv and other regions, with civilian casualties rising sharply, including 23 deaths in Zaporizhzhia.

via Kyiv Post|
#air-defense#diplomacy#energy-security
Lyman Counterattacks Highlight Frontline Realities Amid Moscow's Spending Push
world1 month ago

Lyman Counterattacks Highlight Frontline Realities Amid Moscow's Spending Push

ISW notes Ukrainian counterattacks near Lyman are drawing attention from milbloggers who fault a culture of misinformation in the Russian military; neither side shows confirmed gains on Sep 9, while Russia’s expansionary fiscal policy widens the budget deficit to about 5.8 trillion rubles through August 2026 and funds defense spending. Moscow and Kyiv continue strikes on rear and frontline assets, including Ukrainian strikes against ports and air defenses, with Belarus increasing cooperation. The overall picture remains limited battlefield gains for Russia despite heavy casualties, as reports reflect contested maps, inflated claims, and a persistent war of attrition.

via Institute for the Study of War|
#budget-spending#lyman-front#military-analysis
Experts question NK KN-30: 900-km range and a 2.5-ton warhead unlikely to coexist
world1 month ago

Experts question NK KN-30: 900-km range and a 2.5-ton warhead unlikely to coexist

Defense expert Serhii Zghurets says North Korea’s KN-30 claims of a 900-km range and a 2.5-ton warhead cannot both be true due to basic physics, meaning the advertised specs may be exaggerated or impossible. Regardless of the exact capabilities, the discussion of around 150 missiles potentially flowing to Russia would still augment Moscow’s arsenal and contribute to terrorizing Ukrainian cities through imprecise strikes.

via Euromaidan Press|
#military-analysis#missiles#north-korea
ISW: Russian Offensive Stalls in June 2026 Amid Ukrainian Counterattacks
world3 months ago

ISW: Russian Offensive Stalls in June 2026 Amid Ukrainian Counterattacks

ISW reports that Russia’s spring-summer 2026 offensive has failed to secure operationally significant gains; June 2026 saw only about 30.4 square kilometers gained at an average pace of 1.01 sq km per day, far slower than June 2025. Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk and Oleksandrivka remain effective, with gains concentrated in Kostyantynivka’s urban terrain at high cost. In the first six months of 2026 Russia seized or infiltrated about 622.6 square kilometers, roughly 28% of the 2025 six-month total, and suffered heavy casualties and equipment losses. Ukrainian long-range and intermediate-range strikes are disrupting Russian logistics and oil infrastructure, causing gasoline shortages and pressuring refinery capacity. Russia has closed seven railway border crossings with Finland, Latvia, and Estonia and is leaning on crude exports while importing refined fuels from India. Belarusian airspace and signal repeaters remain contested. Overall, ISW expects no rapid Russian breakthrough and continued attrition in the near term.

via Institute for the Study of War|
#donbas#logistics#long-range-strikes
Deadline Mirage: Russia's Donetsk Push Stalls Against Battlefield Reality
world3 months ago

Deadline Mirage: Russia's Donetsk Push Stalls Against Battlefield Reality

ISW reports that Russia’s deadlines to seize Donetsk Oblast remain unrealistically ambitious, with Zelensky tallying 15 deadlines since 2022 and June 2026 progress at about 3.8 sq km/day—far slower than needed to complete by December 31, 2026. The Kremlin’s propaganda, including “beautiful reports,” masks stagnation as Moscow struggles to restore operational maneuver, while domestic polls show Putin’s support slipping and searches about the war’s end spiking. Ukraine continues long-range strikes against Russian assets, with 154 drones launched overnight and targets hit from the Dubna satellite center to energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea; no confirmed battlefield advances were reported on June 30.

via Institute for the Study of War|
#donetsk-oblast#drones#military-analysis
Ukraine Gains Ground as Retakes Reach 232 Square Miles, Say Retired U.S. Generals
world4 months ago

Ukraine Gains Ground as Retakes Reach 232 Square Miles, Say Retired U.S. Generals

Retired U.S. generals say Ukraine has the upper hand in its war with Russia as Kyiv's top commander reports roughly 232 square miles (about 600 square kilometers) retaken this year, with fighting concentrated in the southeast near Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole. Analysts credit Ukraine's expanding mid-range and long-range drone capabilities that now regularly hit Russian logistics hubs and bases, potentially eroding Russia's ability to sustain offensives. However, experts warn that battlefield gains are reversible and do not guarantee a strategic victory, and both sides remain committed to pursuing objectives rather than a ceasefire in the near term.

via CBS News|
#drones#military-analysis#russia
Ukraine’s Defenses Stall Moscow as Logistics Strain Mounts Across Occupied Ukraine
world4 months ago

Ukraine’s Defenses Stall Moscow as Logistics Strain Mounts Across Occupied Ukraine

Western officials say Ukraine is hindering Russian advances while Moscow appears committed to its original war aims, with some Kremlin elites even calling the war a “dead end” though Putin seeks to finish Donetsk and Luhansk by end-2026. Kyiv’s mid-range strikes are disrupting Russian transport arteries and logistics in occupied Ukraine, notably along the M-14 (R-280) corridor, and a decree restricting freight movement signals mounting pressure on Russian supply lines. Ukraine also intensified long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, while Russian drone and air campaigns continue to bombard Ukrainian rear areas. On the ground, Ukrainian forces reported gains and continued pressure in Sumy, Kharkiv, Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and western Zaporizhia, while Russia conducted limited offensives in Donetsk and Kherson directions. Belarus is expanding military infrastructure while Lukashenko insists there is no attack planned. ISW notes Russia uses cognitive warfare to portray advances, even as fronts stabilize and logistics strain grows, with heavy casualties on both sides and continued high operational tempo in 2026.

via Institute for the Study of War|
#belarus#logistics#military-analysis
ISW Update: Ukraine Advances Amid Russia’s Strained Economy and Ongoing Attacks
world4 months ago

ISW Update: Ukraine Advances Amid Russia’s Strained Economy and Ongoing Attacks

ISW’s May 15, 2026 assessment notes Putin portraying Russia’s economy as strong despite clear strain, while Zelensky warns of Russia reconnoitering near Kyiv. Sanctions relief paired with slowed Patriot interceptors could raise the threat of missile strikes on Ukraine. A Russian state poll shows a small rebound in Putin’s approval. The two sides exchanged 250 prisoners as part of a 1,000-for-1,000 deal. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces advanced near Kharkiv and Kostyantynivka; Russia launched missiles and drones overnight, while Ukraine struck Russian oil infrastructure in Ryazan Oblast, naval assets in Dagestan, and aircraft in Krasnodar Krai.

via Kyiv Post|
#isw#military-analysis#russia
Ukraine war radar: Russia’s massive missile-drone barrage tests defenses as Western aid grows
world6 months ago

Ukraine war radar: Russia’s massive missile-drone barrage tests defenses as Western aid grows

Russia launched a large overnight barrage against Ukraine, firing three Iskander-M missiles and roughly 324 drones from multiple directions, with Ukraine reporting a ~95% interception rate for drones (309 downed) but strikes hitting cities and infrastructure across several oblasts and causing casualties. Western allies, including the UK, pledged expanded military support in 2026, while Ukraine continues long-range strikes against Russian targets and fighting persists in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions amid humanitarian concerns and civilian harm warnings.

via Institute for the Study of War|
#drone-strikes#military-analysis#missile-strikes
ISW: Moscow preps rolling mobilization as Kyiv presses southern gains
world7 months ago

ISW: Moscow preps rolling mobilization as Kyiv presses southern gains

ISW’s February 23 update flags Moscow's use of Defender of the Fatherland Day to frame and enable limited rolling involuntary mobilization, with Putin and Medvedev pushing a responsibility narrative and Kremlin safeguards to blunt domestic backlash, including tighter internet controls and limited social protections if mobilization expands. On the battlefield, Ukraine continues to liberate southern areas with movements near Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka, and Verbove, though ISW notes contested Russian gains and a fluid front line. Russia aims to bolster intelligence and disrupt satellite communications, while Belarus increases military cooperation and drone activity. Ukrainian strikes hit oil infrastructure in Russia (Tatarstan) and Belgorod, and the war remains marked by heavy attrition and shifting control across Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia directions. ISW will continue monitoring frontline changes and refine its terrain maps as new evidence emerges.

via Institute for the Study of War|
#belarus#defense-policy#military-analysis
CSIS finds Russia's Ukraine advance unusually slow by modern-war standards
world8 months ago

CSIS finds Russia's Ukraine advance unusually slow by modern-war standards

CSIS researchers estimate Russia’s three main offensives since 2024 have advanced about 15–70 meters per day, far slower than the 80 meters per day achieved at the Somme, making Moscow’s gains over two years among the slowest in modern warfare; the pace reflects an attritional front saturated with drones, high Russian casualties, and limited maneuver, with only pockets of progress such as the November 2025 push toward Huliaipole.

via Business Insider|
#csis#drones#military-analysis
"Ukraine's Defense Against Russia's New Offensive"
military-analysis2 years ago

"Ukraine's Defense Against Russia's New Offensive"

The conflict in Ukraine has evolved into a grinding war of attrition, prompting discussions about the return of a tactical crisis and the end of maneuver warfare. Advances in military technology have led to a situation reminiscent of the tactical crisis during World War I, where increased firepower favors the defender and forces units to disperse, dig in, or both. The empty battlefield and the need to concentrate fighting power from dispersed positions during offensive actions present challenges similar to those faced in the past. The war in Ukraine has entered a phase of attritional and positional warfare, characterized by small-scale assaults on prepared positions, and the ability to solve this tactical crisis will influence the shape of the conflict in 2024.

via United States Military Academy West Point|
#military-analysis#military-technology#modern-warfare