
2040 Outlook: U.S. car market to shrink as demographics and prices bite
Bain & Company warns the U.S. auto market could decline by more than 2 million vehicles by 2040 due to slowing population growth, lower birth rates, high car prices, and shifting mobility preferences, with younger buyers delaying or forgoing new car purchases, longer vehicle lifespans, and potential delays in autonomous-vehicle adoption fueling intensified competition and industry consolidation.













