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Regime Stability

All articles tagged with #regime stability

Iran’s War-End Push Faces Domestic Struggles and Economic Pressure
world1 month ago

Iran’s War-End Push Faces Domestic Struggles and Economic Pressure

Iran’s latest three‑stage proposal to end the war—permanent end to hostilities, U.S.–Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz with a lifted blockade, then nuclear talks—signals Tehran believes it is winning, but the United States has rejected it for not addressing the nuclear program or Hormuz control. The regime faces severe economic strain from sanctions and oil-storage bottlenecks, risking concessions if the blockade persists, while the SNSC and security services anticipate protests amid widespread internet shutdowns and unemployment. Within Iran, hardline and pragmatic factions are publically clashing, with figures like Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf maneuvering to maintain influence. Tehran continues courting Russia and China and coordinating with other Axis of Resistance as maritime enforcement and interdictions by the U.S. Navy complicate oil movements. In the Israeli-Hezbollah theater, FPV drones prompt IDF countermeasures and casualties, as regional diplomacy and Iraqi political shifts shape the broader conflict.

via Institute for the Study of War|
#iran#irgc#regime-stability
Iran's Hidden Powerhouse: How the IRGC Keeps the State on a Leash
world2 months ago

Iran's Hidden Powerhouse: How the IRGC Keeps the State on a Leash

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is depicted as the spine of a militarized state, wielding broad control over security, politics and a sizable slice of the economy. Through a decentralized 'mosaic' command and its Quds Force, the IRGC maintains domestic authority, projects influence in the region, and stands as the main barrier to regime change, even as leadership shifts and external strikes test the regime.

via The New York Times|
#iran#irgc#mosaic-doctrine
Tehran bets on deterrence, not ceasefire, as war intensifies
world2 months ago

Tehran bets on deterrence, not ceasefire, as war intensifies

Iranian strategist Hassan Ahmadian says Iran has no plan for a ceasefire or for overturning the regime; instead Tehran intends to impose high costs on the United States and Israel to deter future attacks, arguing the Islamic Republic is structurally resilient and backed by a broad middle-ground base. He notes domestic unrest is manageable, rejects calls of imminent collapse, and predicts Iran will escalate with significant strikes after about 10 days while arguing regional states see this as not their war; the West’s explanations for the war are seen as post-facto justifications.

via UnHerd|
#deterrence#iran#middle-east
Iran Protests Push Regime to the Edge of Fragility
world4 months ago

Iran Protests Push Regime to the Edge of Fragility

Protests across Iran are the most serious domestic challenge to the Islamic Republic, met with unprecedented force and an internet blackout; while authorities say activity is under control, open-source indicators including security defections, withdrawals, IRGC deployments, possible foreign militias, simultaneous protests in cities and rural areas, rising security casualties, leaks, and harsh framing signal mounting instability and the possibility of regime change, though several indicators are only partially tripped or unobserved and the outcome remains uncertain. The regime relies on the LEC, Basij, IRGC, and Artesh to suppress unrest, and forecasts about the regime's fate remain uncertain given evolving factors and potential external action.

via Institute for the Study of War|
#iran#isw#protests