All articles tagged with #regime stability
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is depicted as the spine of a militarized state, wielding broad control over security, politics and a sizable slice of the economy. Through a decentralized 'mosaic' command and its Quds Force, the IRGC maintains domestic authority, projects influence in the region, and stands as the main barrier to regime change, even as leadership shifts and external strikes test the regime.
Iranian strategist Hassan Ahmadian says Iran has no plan for a ceasefire or for overturning the regime; instead Tehran intends to impose high costs on the United States and Israel to deter future attacks, arguing the Islamic Republic is structurally resilient and backed by a broad middle-ground base. He notes domestic unrest is manageable, rejects calls of imminent collapse, and predicts Iran will escalate with significant strikes after about 10 days while arguing regional states see this as not their war; the West’s explanations for the war are seen as post-facto justifications.
Protests across Iran are the most serious domestic challenge to the Islamic Republic, met with unprecedented force and an internet blackout; while authorities say activity is under control, open-source indicators including security defections, withdrawals, IRGC deployments, possible foreign militias, simultaneous protests in cities and rural areas, rising security casualties, leaks, and harsh framing signal mounting instability and the possibility of regime change, though several indicators are only partially tripped or unobserved and the outcome remains uncertain. The regime relies on the LEC, Basij, IRGC, and Artesh to suppress unrest, and forecasts about the regime's fate remain uncertain given evolving factors and potential external action.
Iran is experiencing its most widespread protests since 2009, challenging the clerical regime amid economic collapse and social unrest, potentially marking the beginning of a revolutionary moment, though its success remains uncertain and dependent on military and regime responses.
The article argues that the US-led regime change in Venezuela, which resulted in Maduro's removal, was a calculated risk worth taking, emphasizing the severity of Maduro's dictatorship, the low likelihood of worse outcomes, and the importance of acting against oppressive regimes despite international law norms.