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Treasury

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economics18 days ago

The Real Economics of Debt: Why Policy Tricks Won’t Fix Rising Rates

Howard Marks argues that governments cannot override the laws of economics and that the Treasury’s accelerated long-dated buybacks are a cosmetic attempt to blunt rising long-term rates, not a solution to underlying issues. He highlights persistent inflation, large deficits, and AI-driven capital demand as root causes, notes risks to the dollar’s reserve status, and emphasizes the need for genuine fiscal discipline, higher revenues, and productivity growth (especially via AI) to reduce deficits over time. For investors, diversification away from dollars may be prudent but not a wholesale shift; the core message is that the debt problem requires behavioral change, not short-term market manipulation.

via Oaktree Capital Management|
#debt#economics#fiscal-policy
Treasury yields hover above 5% as Fed decision approaches
markets24 days ago

Treasury yields hover above 5% as Fed decision approaches

Yields on the benchmark 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year Treasuries were little changed around 5.00%, 5.41%, and 5.37% as investors awaited the Fed’s two-day meeting and priced in roughly a 92.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike; with inflation cooling modestly and oil above $100 a barrel, the long end remains pressured, and analysts warn a hold could surprise stocks and test Fed credibility.

via CNBC|
#10-year-yield#fed-decision#inflation
Treasury yields jump to near-2007 highs as Fed decision looms
business24 days ago

Treasury yields jump to near-2007 highs as Fed decision looms

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to about 5.04%, its highest intraday level since 2007, as traders priced in roughly a 92% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting. A decision to hold could trigger further bond selling, while a hike—already priced in—could keep yields moving higher and influence markets broadly; the two-year yield also sits at multi‑year highs, reflecting inflation concerns and Fed expectations.

via CNN|
#bond-market#business#fed
Debt-buyback plan lifts 10-year yield to 2023 highs
business1 month ago

Debt-buyback plan lifts 10-year yield to 2023 highs

U.S. Treasury's debt-buyback plan lifted yields after the announcement, with the 10-year note up 2 basis points to 4.824%—its highest since November 1, 2023—while the 30-year rose to about 5.28% and the 2-year to 4.417%. The Treasury said it would buy back $6 billion of longer-dated debt, a size some traders expected could be larger. Oil prices climbed above $100 a barrel for Brent and above $96 for WTI as markets weighed the move, and Treasuries briefly sold off before rebounding after a strong 10-year auction.

via CNBC|
#bonds#business#debt-buyback
Bessent's bid to cool markets backfires, sending yields higher and stocks slide
business1 month ago

Bessent's bid to cool markets backfires, sending yields higher and stocks slide

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's move to tamp down a market fever with a $6 billion buyback of 10- to 20-year Treasuries backfired, as yields jumped to about 4.85% on the 10-year (the highest since Nov. 2023) and longer maturities rose to around 5.3%, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 lower at midday, highlighting doubts about the government's ability to defend prices.

via NBC News|
#bessent#bond-yields#business
Bessent Signals Bigger Bond Buybacks Amid Market Pressure
business1 month ago

Bessent Signals Bigger Bond Buybacks Amid Market Pressure

The U.S. Treasury will announce the size of a long-dated debt buyback—expected to be at least $4 billion, with analysts predicting $5–6 billion or more—focusing on 10- and 20-year notes. Secretary Scott Bessent has warned markets by saying he is the house now, signaling an aggressive tool to cap yields and stabilize markets, including a related yen intervention. The actual buyback will run Thursday after the announcement, and analysts warn a larger program could raise questions about Treasuries’ credibility while markets await demand data from holders.

via CNBC|
#bond-buyback#business#debt
Long-Dated Yields Jump Again as Bessent’s Buyback Fails to Steady Markets
bonds1 month ago

Long-Dated Yields Jump Again as Bessent’s Buyback Fails to Steady Markets

US 30-year Treasuries rebounded to levels seen before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s August buyback move, with 30-year yields above 5.28%, 10-year around 4.8%, and 2-year near 4.4% as traders priced in roughly a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike this month. Global yields rose on inflation and large deficits, despite Bessent’s defense of the toolkit. While he downplays the selloff, analysts warn that a single policy tweak is unlikely to quell ongoing debt and inflation pressures.

via Yahoo Finance|
#bonds#buybacks#inflation
business1 month ago

Trump Portrait Hits U.S. Mint Circulation for 250th Anniversary

The U.S. Mint has begun circulating and selling $1 gold-colored coins bearing Donald Trump's portrait to commemorate the nation’s 250th anniversary, the first time a living person has appeared on U.S. currency since 1866; they’re sold in 25- or 100-coin packages starting at $61, with per-coin prices between $1.55 and $2.44, and the coins were shown to foreign officials at a G20 sideline event this week.

via Politico|
#business#currency#living-person-on-currency
Bessent defends bond buyback amid Druckenmiller critique
business1 month ago

Bessent defends bond buyback amid Druckenmiller critique

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended expanding the government’s debt repurchases, pushing back on Stanley Druckenmiller’s claim that the move was a mistake. He argued the U.S. bond market has performed well since Trump took office and stressed policy should be guided by fundamentals rather than liquidity tools, noting the buyback could exceed $4 billion as yields react to the move.

via cnbc.com|
#bessent#bond-market#business
Gold’s Glimmer: A September Hike May Boost Prices, Not Drag Them Down
business1 month ago

Gold’s Glimmer: A September Hike May Boost Prices, Not Drag Them Down

The author argues that in the current debt-driven regime, a September Federal Reserve hike would not hurt gold. Instead, a Treasury–Fed accord to cap long-term yields could keep real yields from rising, supporting gold and the broader debasement trade as policymakers keep financial conditions loose. This hawkishness is more about stabilizing markets than signaling a gold sell-off.

via Robin J Brooks | Substack|
#business#debasement#fed-reserve