Tag

Climate Models

All articles tagged with #climate models

science1 month ago•218 min saved

Earth Could Host Life for Another 1.8 Billion Years, New Study Finds

New research suggests life on Earth could persist for roughly 1.8 billion more years as the Sun brightens and atmospheric CO2 falls. The study, based on 29 climate models, finds that plant life could endure longer if CAM photosynthesis remains prevalent, potentially up to about 1.84–1.87 billion years under certain weathering scenarios, while other plant types could end sooner (around 1.35–1.84 billion years). The timeline is tied to solar luminosity and the carbonate-silicate cycle, with life likely ending well before the Sun becomes a red giant due to ocean loss and extreme heat. The authors caution that these results assume current photosynthesis and call for more 3-D modeling to better constrain the timescales.

via AOL.com|

#biosphere #climate-models #habitat

science1 month ago•10 min saved

Tiny deep-sea turbulence can swing global climate in a year

New study shows micro-scale turbulence deep in the ocean can affect surface climate on year-long timescales by altering how heat, carbon and nutrients move between the ocean and atmosphere. Tracer work with CFCs and dye experiments reveal faster-than-expected vertical transport, which is currently underestimated by climate models due to simplistic parameterizations. The finding implies climate projections and sea-level rise forecasts could improve with updated representations of deep-ocean mixing and continued, enhanced observations.

via The Conversation|

#climate-models #deep-ocean-turbulence #heat-and-carbon-transfer

science1 month ago•48 min saved

Plants Could Survive About 1.8 Billion More Years as the Sun Brightens

A new study using 29 climate models projects Earth’s plant life could persist for roughly 1.3–1.9 billion years as the Sun brightens and atmospheric CO2 declines, with CAM photosynthesis plants (like cacti and orchids) potentially lasting the longest. Under weak weathering CAM plants survive to about 1.87 billion years, under strong weathering about 1.35 billion years, and using CAM as a survivability threshold raises that to roughly 1.84–1.87 billion years. The end of Earth’s biosphere would coincide with the oceans being lost to space as the Sun brightens, while the Sun’s eventual Red Giant phase is ~5 billion years away. The authors note limitations (they only assessed current photosynthesis pathways) and call for broader 3-D modeling to better constrain these timescales.

via Yahoo|

#biosphere #climate-models #co2

science1 month ago•9 min saved

Poleward North Pacific Storm Shift Outpaces Climate Models

New analysis using decades of sea-level pressure data shows North Pacific winter storm tracks are migrating north toward the Arctic faster than climate models project, a shift linked to climate change that coincides with Alaska’s glacier ice loss (~60 billion tons per year) and hotter, drier conditions across California and Nevada. The study suggests models may understate the risks of storm-track changes, implying Western North America could face more dramatic impacts than current projections indicate.

via SciTechDaily|

#climate-change #climate-models #north-pacific

science1 month ago•52 min saved

Earth Could Host Life For 1.8 Billion More Years Amid Sun's Brightening, Study Says

A study using 29 climate models suggests Earth's vegetative biosphere could persist about 1.8 billion years longer as the Sun brightens, delaying ocean loss and food-web collapse. The work highlights plant strategies that tolerate warming and lower CO2, implying the biosphere could adapt to future conditions, though exact evolutionary outcomes remain uncertain.

via Yahoo|

#biosphere #climate-models #life-on-earth

science1 month ago•118 min saved

Earth’s life could endure 1.8 billion more years as the sun brightens

A new study in Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, using 29 climate models, suggests Earth’s vegetative biosphere could persist for about 1.8 billion years as the Sun brightens and oceans are lost, extending far beyond earlier estimates. The researchers account for varying CO2 levels and plant types (including CAM plants like succulents and orchids) and emphasize that this is a broad projection; evolutionary adaptations could further extend or shorten life’s persistence. The work refines understanding of biosphere longevity and has implications for studying habitability on other worlds.

via Live Science|

#biosphere #climate-models #earth

science2 months ago•10 min saved

Venus once hosted oceans? New clues point to a watery past and a volcanic turn to a runaway greenhouse

Some climate models suggest Venus could have harbored liquid water and temperate conditions for up to about two billion years, aided by slow rotation that encouraged cloud cover; later widespread volcanic resurfacing may have vented CO2 and triggered a runaway greenhouse, leaving Venus far hotter than today. The evidence is debated—cloud behavior on a young Venus and the deuterium-to-hydrogen ratio offer clues but no consensus. Next-generation missions (NASA’s DAVINCI and VERITAS, and ESA’s EnVision) aim to study the atmosphere, surface, and history to help settle whether Venus ever had oceans or was always hot.

via Space Daily|

#climate-models #habitable-venus #science

science3 months ago•5 min saved

Hidden Channels Under Antarctic Ice Shelves Trap Warm Water, Accelerating Melt

A Nature Communications study shows long grooves beneath the Fimbulisen Ice Shelf trap warmer seawater, intensifying local melting and potentially weakening the ice shelf. Even modest inflows of warm water can dramatically increase melt where channels exist, a process not well captured by many climate models, suggesting East Antarctica may be more vulnerable than previously thought.

via The Daily Galaxy|

#antarctica #climate-models #ice-shelf

science5 months ago•11 min saved

Soil Fungus Produces Cell-Free Ice-Nucleating Proteins, Paving Way for Weather Control

An international team found common soil fungi secrete stable, water-soluble proteins that can nucleate ice at around -2°C, acting as cell-free ice makers. This could provide a natural, non-toxic alternative for cloud seeding, enable improved frozen-food and medical preservation, and help climate models by better accounting for ice formation in clouds.

via ZME Science|

#climate-models #cloud-seeding #fungi

science5 months ago•17 min saved

Ancient horsetail reveals water with space-like isotopes, challenging climate records

Water drawn through the hollow stem of a living Equisetum horsetail shows the most extreme oxygen‑isotope signature ever measured in terrestrial material, with heavy oxygen concentrating from base to tip as moisture evaporates. The finding prompts a rethink of how evaporation reshapes plant-water signals, fossil phytolith readings, and past humidity, influencing how scientists reconstruct ancient climates.

via Earth.com|

#climate-models #evaporation #horsetail

science5 months ago•4 min saved

Desert Dust Triggers Ice in Northern Clouds, Hinting at Climate Model Refinements

A 35-year satellite study finds mineral dust from deserts seeds ice formation in cloud tops across the Northern Hemisphere, increasing ice in mixed-phase clouds and altering both sunlight reflection and precipitation. This link between desert dust and cloud freezing could help refine climate projections, though regional variability exists and further research is needed on factors like updraft strength and humidity.

via SciTechDaily|

#climate-models #cloud-microphysics #dust-aerosols

science6 months ago•4 min saved

Hidden Ocean Fronts Drive Surprising Carbon Uptake

Two decades of satellite data show that narrow ocean fronts—where water masses meet—are hotspots for carbon capture due to vertical mixing and phytoplankton blooms. These small zones disproportionately absorb CO₂, suggesting climate models may underestimate ocean carbon storage if they ignore front dynamics; incorporating them could improve predictions of the carbon cycle.

via The Daily Galaxy|

#carbon-uptake #climate-models #ocean-fronts

science8 months ago•2 min saved

Wildfire Smoke's Hidden Impact on Earth's Climate

Wildfire smoke particles lofted high into the atmosphere can have a cooling effect on Earth's climate, and current climate models may need updating to include these large aerosols that increase outgoing radiation, potentially affecting weather and atmospheric circulation.

via Space|

#atmospheric-particles #climate-impact #climate-models

science11 months ago•6 min saved

Early Climate Models Predicted Our Current Climate Realities

Early climate models, particularly those developed by Syukuro Manabe, accurately predicted key aspects of modern climate change, including global warming from CO2, stratospheric cooling, Arctic amplification, land-ocean contrast, and delayed Southern Ocean warming, demonstrating their significant predictive success despite their complexity and limitations.

via Space|

#arctic-amplification #climate-models #early-predictions

science11 months ago•6 min saved

Early Climate Models Accurately Predicted Current Sea-Level Rise

Early climate models, particularly those developed by Syukuro Manabe in the 1960s, accurately predicted key features of modern climate change, including global warming from CO2, stratospheric cooling, Arctic amplification, land-ocean contrast, and delayed Southern Ocean warming, demonstrating the reliability of climate modeling despite its complexities and limitations.

via The Conversation|

#climate-models #climate-predictions #climate-science-history