All articles tagged with #futures markets
Futures markets are pricing in a real chance the Fed will raise rates by year-end as energy-price shocks keep inflation elevated, contrasting with officials' expectations and the president's preferences. The CME FedWatch puts about 26% odds of a higher policy rate by year’s end, and the two-year Treasury yield around 3.9%, suggesting traders expect higher rates in coming years despite ongoing debate about the path forward.
A hotter-than-expected February producer price index dampens bets on near-term Fed easing, with December cuts priced in around 60% but not with strong conviction. Odds for June/July/September cuts have fallen as inflation stays elevated due to factors like tariffs, the Iran war, and higher services costs. Markets imply a higher-for-longer path, expecting the fed funds rate to end 2026 near 3.43% versus 3.64% now, as traders await the FOMC decision with hawkish expectations.
Natural gas markets rallied initially but showed signs of exhaustion due to technical and fundamental headwinds, with prices likely to slow down to the $2.50 level. The $2 level is significant support, while the $3 level is significant resistance, with potential resistance extending to $3.33. As winter nears its end, futures markets are pricing in March, putting downward pressure on natural gas due to decreasing heating demand. The market is expected to trade within a range for most of the year, with $2 as support and $3.33 as the ceiling, presenting a neutral outlook.
The natural gas market is stagnant as it hovers around the $3.33 resistance level, with potential to rise if it breaks above $3.45, but a downside break of $3.00 would be negative. The current spike is attributed to a winter snap in the Northeastern US, but it's expected to be short-lived as futures markets are gearing up to roll over into March, leading to a likely drop. Despite quick depletion of natural gas in the US, the market is anticipated to fall back into its previous range in the near future.
Natural gas has rallied but faces resistance at $3.33, driven by a storm in the Northeastern US. The market is thin and prone to exaggerated moves due to major players. Futures markets are pricing in February and March, signaling a drop in demand as temperatures rise. Short-term trading opportunities may arise, but the long-term outlook remains bearish due to oversupply. The analyst is waiting for signs of exhaustion to start shorting, with a projected range of $2 to $3.33.
Cryptocurrency markets have been trading within a tight range due to regulatory uncertainty and the US banking crisis. The lack of risk appetite is likely due to conflicting forces. The recent crypto sideways trend suggests that investors are hesitant to place new bets until there’s more clarity on whether the US Treasury will continue injecting liquidity to contain the banking crisis, which favors inflation and positive momentum for scarce assets. The options market shows whales and market makers unwilling to take protective puts even after Bitcoin crashed 7.8% on May 1. However, given the balanced demand on futures markets, traders seem hesitant to place additional bets until there’s clarity on whether the US Treasury will continue to bail out the troubled regional bank sector.
Bitcoin's price struggles to hold above $30,000 due to increased regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the US. The CFTC has accused Binance of violating US rules, while the SEC is revisiting the proposed redefinition of an "exchange" and has charged Bittrex for operating an unregistered securities exchange. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's regulatory environment seems to have improved, and Argentina has approved a Bitcoin-based futures index. Options traders are leaning towards bearish structures, and Bitcoin futures metrics remain neutral-to-bearish. Investors fear regulatory action could dim demand for retail and institutional clients, so the odds of Bitcoin breaking above $31,000 remain slim.