
Prediction Markets Price 93% Odds of Democratic Congressional Win, Setting Stage for Historically Weak Stock Returns
With 25 days until the November 3 midterms, prediction markets assign a 93% probability that Democrats will retake at least one chamber of Congress. While historical data suggests this 'divided government' scenario yields lower average annual stock returns (7.33%) compared to unified control, experts caution that long-term market performance is driven by corporate earnings and economic fundamentals rather than political alignment.




