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Prediction Market

All articles tagged with #prediction market

Kalshi Valued at $22B After $1B Funding, Targets Institutional Traders
business21 days ago

Kalshi Valued at $22B After $1B Funding, Targets Institutional Traders

Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation led by Coatue, signaling strong investor interest in prediction markets as the platform expands beyond retail users toward institutional traders, with about 2 million monthly users, roughly $178 billion in annualized trading volume and over $1.5 billion in annualized revenue; the company plans more data integrations and block trades for corporates and hedge funds, while regulators and competitors pose ongoing challenges.

via The New York Times|
#business#coatue#funding
Prediction markets flag Powell's near-term exit from the Fed Board
business29 days ago

Prediction markets flag Powell's near-term exit from the Fed Board

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing in a Powell exit from the Federal Reserve Board soon—30% by June on Kalshi and 87% between May 15–22 on Polymarket—with Powell set to address reporters after the Fed meeting; his departure hinges on the DOJ inquiry, which was dropped, and Warsh’s nomination advancing in the Senate; if Powell delays, he could stay through two more meetings into August, though his governor term runs to 2028.

via CNBC|
#business#fed#kalshi
Minnesota State Senator Banned by Kalshi for Self-Bet in 2nd District Race
politics1 month ago

Minnesota State Senator Banned by Kalshi for Self-Bet in 2nd District Race

State Sen. Matt Klein (DFL) was suspended for five years and fined $539.85 by Kalshi after the platform found he bet on the outcome of his own 2nd District race; Klein says the $50 bet was a curiosity and he regrets it, while Kalshi frames the action as part of a broader crackdown on political insider trading and Minnesota lawmakers’ efforts to ban prediction markets.

via Minnesota Reformer|
#insider-trading#kalshi#matt-klein
Kalshi halts three candidates for trading on their own races
politics1 month ago

Kalshi halts three candidates for trading on their own races

Kalshi, a prediction-market platform, suspended three political candidates after an internal probe found they placed bets on their own campaigns, labeling it 'political insider trading' and sanctioning them under its rules aligned with CFTC oversight. The exact trade amounts weren’t disclosed. Kalshi says fines will be donated to a nonprofit educating consumers about financial markets. The move underscores bipartisan concerns about election integrity in the growing prediction-market space and follows a prior case, as lawmakers consider new limits and courts navigate the regulatory landscape surrounding election contracts.

via CNN|
#cftc#elections-2026#insider-trading
MLB Taps Polymarket for Exclusive Prediction Markets in Multiyear Pact
business2 months ago

MLB Taps Polymarket for Exclusive Prediction Markets in Multiyear Pact

Major League Baseball signed a multiyear deal making Polymarket the exclusive MLB prediction-market partner, allowing use of team logos though terms were not disclosed (some reports suggest a sizable, multi‑hundred‑million figure). The agreement follows similar moves by the NHL and MLS and includes coordination with the CFTC to protect game integrity by restricting markets tied to pitches, manager decisions, or umpire calls. Sportradar remains MLB’s data distributor, and Polymarket and Kalshi are drawing significant investment as the broader prediction-market sector grows.

via Front Office Sports|
#business#cftc#integrity
Arizona accuses Kalshi of illegal election gambling in 20-count case
business2 months ago

Arizona accuses Kalshi of illegal election gambling in 20-count case

Arizona Attorney General Kristin Mayes filed a 20-count criminal complaint accusing Kalshi of operating an unlicensed gambling business and taking illegal bets on elections in Arizona; each misdemeanor carries a $10,000–$20,000 fine, and the action does not seek an immediate shutdown. Kalshi disputes the charges, saying it is federally regulated, and has begun lawsuits against Utah and Iowa to challenge state actions.

via NBC News|
#arizona#business#elections
Markets push Kyler Murray toward Vikings as next NFL destination
sports2 months ago

Markets push Kyler Murray toward Vikings as next NFL destination

Prediction markets (Kalshi) rate the Minnesota Vikings as Kyler Murray's likely next team after the Cardinals released him, with the Cardinals footing the contract and Murray potentially signing for the veteran's minimum; he would compete with J.J. McCarthy for the starting job if he lands in Minnesota. Other clubs tied to Murray include the Jets, Falcons, and Rams, and the market's high trading volume signals strong confidence in a Vikings landing.

via New York Post|
#kyler-murray#minnesota-vikings#nfl
Kalshi Withholds Death-Linked Winnings, Sparking Outrage
business2 months ago

Kalshi Withholds Death-Linked Winnings, Sparking Outrage

Kalshi refused to pay out winnings on a $54 million trade tied to the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, citing a rule that markets cannot settle on death; bettors vented anger as Kalshi reimbursed some losses after clarifications, and the episode fueled a broader debate among lawmakers and rivals about the ethics and legality of death-related bets in prediction markets.

via New York Post|
#business#controversy#kalshi
Industry Season 5 Preview: The Final Dance of Money, Markets, and Power
television2 months ago

Industry Season 5 Preview: The Final Dance of Money, Markets, and Power

The Ringer uses a playful prediction market to forecast Industry's final Season 5, envisioning plots around Harper and Yasmin's fraught relationship, potential returns of key players, a power-driven arc with Sebastian Stefanowicz and Otto Mostyn, and possible moves from Silicon Valley to Hollywood—plus meta twists like a deleted-scenes episode.

via The Ringer|
#harper-stern#industry#prediction-market
Prediction Markets Signal 2026 S&P 500 Correction Risk, Backed by Historical Midterm Trends
investing3 months ago

Prediction Markets Signal 2026 S&P 500 Correction Risk, Backed by Historical Midterm Trends

Kalshi contracts price in a ~58% chance of a 2026 S&P 500 correction (to 6,200 or lower), with another bet near 39% for a roughly 15% drop to 5,900. History suggests bear markets are plausible in 2026 (about 50% odds) and midterm years tend to see notable pullbacks before a post‑election rebound, while earnings are expected to rise about 15% but valuations remain elevated (about 21.5x forward). The takeaway: be cautious, only buy what you’re comfortable holding through drawdowns, and consider keeping a larger cash cushion.

via The Motley Fool|
#bear-market#investing#midterm-elections
NCAA Blocks Kalshi's Portal Trading Proposal
sports5 months ago

NCAA Blocks Kalshi's Portal Trading Proposal

Kalshi, a prediction market platform, has notified regulators of plans to list markets on whether college athletes will enter the transfer portal, drawing criticism from the NCAA due to concerns over athlete pressure and integrity. While Kalshi states it has no immediate plans to offer such trading, the move highlights ongoing tensions between emerging prediction markets and sports regulatory bodies.

via ESPN|
#gambling#kalshi#ncaa