All articles tagged with #oil price
UK unleaded petrol jumped to 158.52p per litre — the highest since the start of the Iran war — as Brent crude climbed to around $111 a barrel from about $73 pre-conflict, lifting pump prices; diesel rose to 185.92p. The RAC says petrol could push past 160p unless oil prices ease, while diesel looks relatively more positive. The chancellor’s plans to raise fuel duty are under review, but the Treasury did not comment.
Oil futures have not fully priced in the ongoing Hormuz-related supply shock; while futures are up about $30 vs February, they remain $20-30 below some physical cargoes trading around $130-$150 per barrel, indicating the physical market is tighter than the futures curve suggests. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, prices could surge toward $150-$200 per barrel into the summer, and it could take months to restore flows (and years to repair damaged upstream/downstream infrastructure). Analysts warn the optimism around a quick reopening may blind markets to the scale of the disruption.
Global stock markets were mixed on May Day as many markets closed for the holiday; US stocks showed a cautious, mixed session while crude oil held around $104 a barrel, keeping near recent levels as traders digested data and awaited guidance from other markets.
Oil prices jumped to a four-year high as the Iran war risks disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with reports of possible renewed strikes and ongoing regional tensions. In Washington, Trump criticized Germany’s leadership over Iran policy as Hegseth faced questions about war costs and duration, while Iran and its allies pushed back against Western pressure. Across the region, fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon caused mass displacement and casualties, a Gaza flotilla was intercepted, and Iran vowed to defend its nuclear and missile capabilities as the U.S. weighs new options and Germany mulls troop reductions.
Brent crude surged to over $122 a barrel—the highest since 2022—as stalled US-Iran talks and Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz keep supply tight; the one-day gain near 10% and fears of a prolonged blockade raise the possibility of much higher prices (analysts warn up to $190 if the impasse lasts months) with inflation and recession risks mounting globally.
The UAE’s plan to quit OPEC is seen as a potential blow to the cartel’s ability to influence prices as non-OPEC output—especially US shale—grows and OPEC’s share of global crude shrinks. The UAE, a top exporter and fourth-largest producer, could add about 1 million bpd after leaving, amid ongoing supply risks like the Hormuz closure that keep markets volatile. While OPEC’s influence has waned since the 1970s, observers say the exit could mark a shift toward a less centralized pricing regime, with some calling it the end of OPEC as we know it, though the group would likely persist in a reduced form.
U.S. stocks climbed to record highs despite the Iran conflict and an oil-supply shock, as investors focus on what could happen in the future rather than today. Analysts say the rally reflects bets on a near-term resolution and solid earnings, with AI/tech leading the way; however, a protracted war could still weigh on gains and oil volatility remains a risk.
Oil rises above $100 while U.S. stock indices stay relatively flat ahead of potential US-Iran diplomacy, signaling cautious optimism in both energy and equity markets.
Oil prices fell over the week to about $96 Brent despite Middle East tensions and Hormuz disruptions, marking OilPrice’s biggest weekly decline since 2025 as March OPEC+ output cuts and Saudi field outages limit supply, while China allows SPR draws and other nations move to bolster energy security.
Goldman Sachs says traders have misinterpreted the Fed path as oil prices rise, arguing the oil-driven fears of imminent rate hikes may be overstated and the central bank’s tightening path could be less aggressive than currently priced in.
The U.S. dollar holds near a multi‑month high as fears of a prolonged Middle East war push oil prices higher, pushing the yen past 160 per dollar and fueling intervention jitters while markets weigh inflation and the risk of tighter policy amid stagflation concerns.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to ships not granted passage and warned of a severe response, sending crude prices above $110 a barrel. The regime also hints it could target the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, which handles about 10% of world oil, raising the prospect of broader supply disruption. The move comes as the UAE seeks to form an international Hormuz Security Force to reopen the strait, while analysts warn oil could spike toward $200 a barrel by June; Yemen’s Houthi movement remains a potential escalator, though active involvement is not confirmed.
U.S. stock indexes gained as investors weighed renewed hopes for U.S.–Iran talks, lifting the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while oil prices fell below $100 a barrel.
Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says US recession risk is rising and could be triggered if oil averages about $125 per barrel in Q2; their simulations identify that level as a plausible tipping point amid Iran tensions and a weak labor market. Although not predicting an outright downturn in their baseline outlook, higher oil prices have shaved roughly 15–20 basis points from 2026 real GDP growth, and their April forecast expects a further rise in oil prices that would weigh on growth and push recession probabilities higher.
The Philippines has declared a one-year national energy emergency to safeguard fuel supplies after the Iran conflict disrupts global markets, authorizing the government to secure fuel, oversee distribution of essentials, and directly purchase petroleum; with 98% of oil imports from the Gulf, diesel and petrol prices have more than doubled, about 45 days of fuel left, and a shift toward coal power as LNG costs rise.