China's March passenger NEV retail sales reached 848,000 units, up 82.6% from February but down 14.4% year-on-year, while March NEV exports rose 139.9% year-on-year to 349,000 units, according to CPCA data and accompanying charts.
China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March, the strongest reading in a year and above expectations, signaling expansion after two months of contraction as production and new orders grew; however, inventories, employment, and delivery times remained contracted, while the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 and export demand picked up.
BYD signaled exports will likely beat its prior 2026 target by about 15%, aiming for 1.5 million vehicles as overseas demand offsets a domestic sales slump; the Shenzhen automaker had already exported over 1 million vehicles last year and is expanding its international footprint to sustain growth.
Japan's February exports rose 4.2% year-on-year, beating Reuters forecasts but slowing from January's surge; shipments to mainland China fell 10.9% and to the U.S. dropped 8%, while exports to Southeast Asia rose 5.1% and Western Europe climbed. Auto exports to the U.S. fell 14.8% and semiconductor shipments jumped 25.1%, with overall gains supported by other regions as Japan awaits BOJ policy talks.
China kicked off 2026 on firmer footing as consumption and production beat expectations: retail sales rose 2.8% year‑on‑year in Jan–Feb, helped by the Lunar New Year; industrial output climbed 6.3%; exports surged nearly 22%; fixed-asset investment excluding real estate rose 5.2% as infrastructure and manufacturing supported growth. Real estate remained weak with new-home prices down 3.2%. Geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs pose headwinds, but China’s energy supply is ample and policy makers have set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5%.
China posted a nearly 22% jump in exports for January–February, led by semiconductors (up about 73%), autos (67%), and electronics, as demand outside the U.S. rose even as shipments to America fell roughly 11%. Imports rose about 20%, producing a January–February trade surplus of about $213.6 billion. The data come as Beijing targets 2026 growth of 4.5%–5% amid global tensions and domestic weakness, with AI-driven chip demand helping sustain export strength.
China posted a record trade surplus of $213.62 billion for January–February as exports surged 21.8% year over year and imports rose 19.8%, underscoring resilient growth despite ongoing U.S.–China tensions and signaling a limited near-term stimulus outlook after Beijing's Two Sessions.
Bloomberg reports Iraq’s oil production has fallen roughly 60% to about 1.7–1.8 million barrels per day as Iran-related conflict disrupts tanker access and chokepoints through the Strait of Hormuz, with limited export capacity and Gulf producers like the UAE and Kuwait cutting output while storage fills up.
Last year the US posted a record $3.4 trillion in goods imports and a goods-and-services deficit near $901.5 billion, pushing the overall goods deficit to about $1.2 trillion despite sweeping tariffs. Exports rose to new highs, and the US-China gap narrowed about 30% to $202.1 billion, while gaps widened with Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan. Analysts say tariff effects may take time to materialize amid ongoing legal challenges to the tariffs.
Western sanctions are squeezing Russia’s oil trade: January seaborne exports slipped to about 3.4 million barrels per day from 3.8 mbpd in December, with February tracking around 2.8 mbpd, while Russia-held oil on ships rose to a record above 150 million barrels. Moscow has redirected crude to China, India and Turkey via a shadow fleet, but EU bans on refined Russian fuels and tighter US measures are reducing demand. If wells are shut for extended periods, restarting production won’t be easy, suggesting sanctions could force Russia to cut output despite past resilience.
China’s export-led growth is losing steam as a real estate crash and weak domestic demand fuel a deflationary spiral, even after a record 2025 trade surplus and about 5% GDP growth. December retail sales were only 0.9% higher, fixed-asset investment fell sharply, and tens of millions of homes remain unsold, underscoring the economy’s exposure to the property market. Analysts warn that relying on exports is unsustainable and call for a consumer-led rebalancing, with Fitch and IMF foreseeing slower growth in 2026.
The U.S. trade deficit remains near record highs despite tariffs, after a brief dip earlier in 2025; November alone showed a jump to $56.8 billion as imports rose and exports fell. Even when removing tariff effects and gold flows, deficits stay large, with 2025 tracking to one of the year’s largest gaps. Economists say tariffs and a cheaper dollar help, but persistent import demand (notably from Mexico and Vietnam) and AI-related equipment needs keep the deficit elevated, even as Q4 looks to be the year’s smallest deficit and could modestly boost GDP.
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $56.8 billion in November 2025 as exports fell to $292.1 billion and imports rose to $348.9 billion, lifting the goods shortfall to $86.9 billion while services posted a $30.1 billion surplus; year-to-date deficits edged higher versus 2024 as both exports and imports increased.
November’s trade data show the U.S. deficit widening to $56.8 billion as imports rose 5% and exports fell 3.6%, reflecting ongoing volatility from tariff policies and the reversal of earlier deficits.
BEA revises Q3 2025 GDP to +4.4% (SAAR), up from Q2’s +3.8%, driven by rises in consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment, with imports higher; real final sales to private domestic purchasers up 2.9%. Industry: private services-producing +5.3%, private goods-producing +3.6%, government -0.3%. Real gross output +3.2% with services leading; PCE inflation at 2.8% (2.9% ex food and energy). Profits from current production rose by $175.6B. The update replaces the prior December release due to a government shutdown; next BEA release is February 20, 2026.