Bond Traders See Warsh-Inspired Fed Hikes Ahead
Bond traders are pricing in a Warsh-influenced path for the Federal Reserve, expecting rate hikes this year and a higher-for-longer stance, as bond markets shift to a tighter monetary outlook.
Tag
Fed Reserve
All articles tagged with #fed reserve
Iran-driven inflation heights push Fed toward potential rate hikes under Warsh
April Fed minutes reveal a hawkish drift as inflation pressures from the Iran–Israel conflict intensify, with more policymakers suggesting tightening may be needed if inflation stays above 2%. The minutes also show wariness about easing as Warsh takes the helm, even as Powell departs; markets and economists increasingly expect higher rates rather than cuts this year, supported by a resilient labor market and rising bond yields.
Powell to Stay on Fed Board as Warsh Heads for Chair Amid Political Scrutiny
Powell will remain on the Federal Reserve Board after his chair term ends May 15 to oversee the ongoing probe into the Fed HQ renovations, while Kevin Warsh has cleared a Senate committee to become the next Fed chair and is expected to be sworn in before Powell’s term ends. Analysts say the transition is unusual and likely to be slow and consensus-driven, with potential shifts in how the Fed communicates and conducts policy, as the board’s balance could tilt if more Trump appointees move.
Fed holds rates as Powell's chair tenure nears end, Warsh confirmation looms
The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.5%–3.75% and maintained a wait‑and‑see stance amid Iran‑related uncertainty and higher energy costs, with a 3.3% inflation reading dampening near‑term cuts and suggesting any easing could be delayed to 2026; Powell will stay on the Fed board until the probe into him is resolved, while Trump’s legal attacks on the Fed are criticized as battering the institution; Warsh’s confirmation moves forward after the DOJ dropped the probe, making a Senate vote likely before Powell’s term ends on May 15.
Fed Poised to Hold Rates as Powell's Era Nears Its End
Powell's likely final FOMC meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged as inflation remains stubborn and the labor market stays resilient. Markets price in no rate move, while focus shifts to Powell’s future and a transition to Kevin Warsh, all set against elevated energy prices that complicate the Fed’s path to easing.
Warsh on the Way: Hawkish Fed Tilt Could Weigh on Stocks
As Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15, a hawkish Warsh could push the Fed toward higher rates and a smaller balance sheet, dimming hopes for further rate cuts. Compounded by Iran-related oil shocks that are fueling inflation, this shift may raise borrowing costs and dampen stock-market gains after a prolonged bull run.
DOJ ends Powell probe, paving the way for Warsh to lead the Fed
The Department of Justice has dropped its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, removing a major hurdle to Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh to replace him, and directing related questions about the Fed’s headquarters renovation cost overruns to the Fed’s internal watchdog.
Capitol Hill in Overdrive: Fed Oversight, Immigration Vote-Rama, and High-Stakes Policy Fights
A sprawling live update from Politico paints a hectic Capitol Hill: Senate leaders signal widened oversight of the Federal Reserve to help move Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh amid a DOJ probe, while both chambers gear up for a marathon budget/vote-a-rama focused on immigration funding. The week also features Iran war powers debates, AI-tool expansions for Senate operations, discussions about potential pardons in the Epstein-Maxwell case, scrutiny of Kennedy’s vaccine policy, and a Sanders amendment to codify drug-price deals, all set against House-FISA tensions, Virginia redistricting fallout, a vanished New Jersey lawmaker, a death in Congress, and a stark public disapproval rating for Congress. The bundle of stories highlights partisan brinkmanship, procedural wrangling, and the wide array of clashes shaping the 2026 agenda.
Warsh clears disclosures as Fed chair bid moves toward Senate hearing
Warsh has filed the required financial disclosures and the Senate Banking Committee could schedule a hearing next week, moving his bid to be Fed chair forward; however, final approval remains uncertain as Sen. Tillis has signaled he will block until a federal criminal probe into Jerome Powell is resolved, with Powell’s term ending May 15 and the White House aiming for Warsh to be in place by then.
Oil Spike and Soft Jobs Data Drive Markets Lower
Oil prices surged to multi-year highs on supply fears tied to geopolitical tensions, sparking a broad stock sell-off, while February payrolls fell by 92,000 and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, dampening hopes for early Fed rate cuts and keeping markets volatile as traders weighed policy and geopolitical risk. Gold edged higher and U.S. Treasuries were choppy as currencies fluctuated.
Gold and silver swing as Warsh rumor triggers market shift and FTSE hits new high
Gold tumbled as much as 8% to about $4,465/oz before closing around 3% lower at $4,718.35, while silver slid up to 7% intraday and then about 3.3% to $81.75, after Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to chair the Fed and investors weighed the policy outlook. The volatility helped push the FTSE 100 above 10,300 to a record high, with oil and copper retreating and bitcoin recovering; Deutsche Bank still expects gold to reach $6,000 this year as safe‑haven demand fluctuates. Year over year, gold is up ~65% and silver ~120%.
Markets Edge Lower as Fed Chair Pick Looms
Stock futures fell after the S&P 500’s second straight decline as gold and silver pulled back from their gains; with President Trump signaling a forthcoming Federal Reserve chair appointment, investors are weighing contenders such as Kevin Warsh. Apple beat fiscal Q1 expectations and Sandisk issued strong guidance, highlighting AI-related infrastructure spending as a key market driver, while overall sentiment remains cautious and weekly gains are modest ahead of more earnings and policy news.
Markets Slip as Warsh Fed Chair Prospect Triggers Tech Selloff
U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open as investors weighed President Trump’s likely pick for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, fueling concerns about Fed independence; Dow futures fell about 398 points, S&P 500 futures down ~0.9%, and Nasdaq futures down ~1.1%. Apple’s solid earnings did little to lift sentiment as Microsoft’s weaker results weighed on tech; the dollar ticked higher and Treasuries yields rose. Gold and silver prices also dropped sharply amid renewed rate‑hike concerns and Warsh speculation.
ICE crackdown reshapes Minneapolis as Fed keeps rates steady and social-media lawsuits loom
Minneapolis residents describe daily life altered by a large ICE operation with thousands of migrant apprehensions, volunteers mobilizing and schools offering online options; the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady amid a mixed labor market and persistent inflation; and a wave of landmark social-media lawsuits heads to trial, potentially forcing changes in how platforms address youth mental health and safety.
Court Signals Shield for Fed Independence Against Presidential Removal Power
During oral arguments, the Supreme Court signaled skepticism of Trump’s authority to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook and pressed the administration on due-process and judicial review, suggesting protection for Federal Reserve independence; with Powell’s attendance underscoring the stakes, a fast ruling could shape the scope of presidential removal power and the Fed’s autonomy.