Russia’s Ukraine War Outlasts World War I, but the 1917 Moment Remains Unclear
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in 2022 and has now surpassed World War I in duration, yet the wars differ: WWI featured broad mobilization and Western backing for Russia, while the Ukraine war has limited allies and a Kremlin-controlled home front. Ukrainian intelligence estimates about mid-2026 place roughly 1.8–2.0 million Russian soldiers who have fought in Ukraine, with around 1.2 million killed or wounded—a high casualty rate relative to those who served, but a much smaller share of Russia’s population than WWI’s. Technologically, Ukraine leads in data fusion and drones, while Russia still relies on legacy weapons and Iranian-made drones. The piece notes potential precursors to upheaval in Russia but argues a 1917-scale revolution remains unlikely, even as the war exposes governance, economic, and modernization vulnerabilities.
