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Rate Cuts

All articles tagged with #rate cuts

Trump Pressures Fed to Pause or Cut Rates Ahead of September Decision
business1 month ago

Trump Pressures Fed to Pause or Cut Rates Ahead of September Decision

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its September meeting, the Trump administration publicly urges no rate hike and even calls for cuts, with senior officials arguing inflation remains under control and growth supports lower rates. Warsh stresses Fed independence, while Trump even hints at tariffs tied to rate moves. Markets price about a 60% chance of a September hike after strong August job data, and investors await the CPI to gauge the policy path ahead of midterm elections.

business5 months ago

Warsh’s Fed Playbook Tested by Trump and Oil-Price Surges

Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh faces Trump’s demand for rapid rate cuts even as Iran-related oil-price spikes and ongoing inflation complicate policy; investors have shifted to pricing little or no cuts this year, while some central bankers anticipate hikes instead. Warsh argues a productivity boost from AI could enable lower rates, but unwinding the Fed’s asset holdings would take time and policymakers remain divided on the path forward.

Powell's Final FOMC Signals Higher Rates for Longer, Pressure on Stocks
economy5 months ago

Powell's Final FOMC Signals Higher Rates for Longer, Pressure on Stocks

Powell’s last FOMC meeting kept rates at 3.50%–3.75% but showed a record dissent against easing, suggesting no rate cuts in 2026. With the market’s CAPE ratio around 40—the highest since 2000—stocks face downside risk if borrowing costs stay high and easing is off the table. The development marks a potentially dubious turning point for Wall Street as valuations remain historically stretched.

Powell Signals Cautious Path: Fed Holds Rates, Eyes Two Cuts Amid Oil Shock
economy6 months ago

Powell Signals Cautious Path: Fed Holds Rates, Eyes Two Cuts Amid Oil Shock

Fed Chair Powell rejects the stagflation label and says he’ll stay through an ongoing investigation as the Fed holds rates at 3.5%–3.75% and signals two potential cuts this year if inflation progresses. Oil-price shocks from the Iran war push near‑term inflation higher, though higher U.S. energy production could cushion some effects. Markets fell as investors weighed the policy stance against ongoing Middle East uncertainty.

Hot PPI Dampens Expectation of Fed Rate Cuts This Year
economy6 months ago

Hot PPI Dampens Expectation of Fed Rate Cuts This Year

A hotter-than-expected February producer price index dampens bets on near-term Fed easing, with December cuts priced in around 60% but not with strong conviction. Odds for June/July/September cuts have fallen as inflation stays elevated due to factors like tariffs, the Iran war, and higher services costs. Markets imply a higher-for-longer path, expecting the fed funds rate to end 2026 near 3.43% versus 3.64% now, as traders await the FOMC decision with hawkish expectations.

Friday PCE Release Could Move Markets as Inflation Bets Take Center Stage
business7 months ago

Friday PCE Release Could Move Markets as Inflation Bets Take Center Stage

Friday morning's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, could move U.S. markets as traders assess whether inflation is moderating and what that means for Fed rate cuts this year. If PCE confirms cooling inflation, markets could rise with bets of multiple rate cuts; futures currently price in about two 25bp cuts in 2026, potentially lifting to three if the data reinforces a softer inflation path.

Fed minutes reveal rift over future rate moves
business7 months ago

Fed minutes reveal rift over future rate moves

Minutes from the Jan. 27-28 FOMC meeting show a clear split among policymakers on the path for rates: some want further cuts if inflation cools, others urge holding rates for now, and a few even floated hikes if inflation stays above target. The decision to hold was marked by dissent from two governors, even as most officials noted signs of labor-market stabilization. Recent data—strong job gains and a softer CPI—keep the outlook mixed. With Powell nearing the end of his term and Kevin Warsh eyed as a successor, the policy path remains unsettled ahead of upcoming meetings.