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Yields Pressure Stocks, Yet Earnings Momentum Keeps Me Buying the Dip
business2 days ago

Yields Pressure Stocks, Yet Earnings Momentum Keeps Me Buying the Dip

Despite the S&P 500’s earnings-driven optimism, a rally in long-term yields (30-year above 5% and a breakout in the 10-year) adds risk to stocks. A potential Iran deal could help cool yields before the July FOMC, but if the long end keeps rising I’ll trim risk. The AAII sentiment shows a contrarian tilt, and I’m still buying the pullback—staying bullish on earnings while staying nimble and ready to reduce exposure if yields resume their ascent.

via Seeking Alpha|
#business#fomc#markets
Markets at a Crossroads: All-Time Highs Clash with Inflation and Yields
markets9 days ago

Markets at a Crossroads: All-Time Highs Clash with Inflation and Yields

The S&P 500 hit new highs on strong CY26 earnings expectations and Fed liquidity, but hotter inflation readings, rising long-term yields, and a downward revision to CY26 EPS growth to about 23.2% raise risk. The piece maintains a neutral stance on SPY, advising caution and selective pruning until inflation pressures ease, highlighting the tension between earnings-driven rally optimism and a backdrop of higher risk-free rates.

via Seeking Alpha|
#earnings#fed#inflation
Tech rally lifts Nasdaq and S&P 500 to fresh records despite hotter inflation
markets13 days ago

Tech rally lifts Nasdaq and S&P 500 to fresh records despite hotter inflation

U.S. stocks climbed to new records as a tech-led rally pushed the Nasdaq up about 1.2% and the S&P 500 up 0.6% even as wholesale inflation came in hotter than expected; the Dow slipped slightly. Nvidia, Apple and other megacap names helped drive gains within the Magnificent Seven amid AI optimism, while the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair and bond yields rose toward 2026 highs, signaling continued inflation pressure and a potential rate backdrop for markets.

via Yahoo Finance|
#ai#inflation#markets
Bear-Market Warning: Recession Likely This Year, S&P May Dive 30% by End-2026
business23 days ago

Bear-Market Warning: Recession Likely This Year, S&P May Dive 30% by End-2026

Economist Gary Shilling says a US recession is almost inevitable this year and the S&P 500 could drop as much as 30% by year-end 2026, citing stretched valuations (Shiller CAPE near highs, price-to-sales/book at record levels), a cooling consumer, a frozen housing market due to higher rates, and weak business investment outside AI-related capex. He argues only a fiscal stimulus burst or unexpectedly strong consumer demand could avert a downturn, both unlikely, signaling a significant market correction in the near term.

via Business Insider|
#business#gary-shilling#recession
S&P 500 clears 7,000 on a rapid rebound, but breadth and earnings will decide the next leg
markets1 month ago

S&P 500 clears 7,000 on a rapid rebound, but breadth and earnings will decide the next leg

The S&P 500 surged above 7,000 in a fast rebound led by financials, signaling strong near-term momentum even as breadth remained narrow and the Magnificent Seven lagged; earnings results and broader participation will determine whether the rally can continue, with banks beating expectations and earnings season beginning serving as the next test.

via MarketWatch|
#earnings-season#market-breadth#markets
Markets drift as futures ease after Monday’s slide amid inflation talks and Middle East tensions
business1 month ago

Markets drift as futures ease after Monday’s slide amid inflation talks and Middle East tensions

U.S. stock futures were little changed after Monday’s losses, with the S&P 500 down 0.39%, Nasdaq down 0.73%, and the Dow up 0.11%. The CBOE VIX topped 30 as geopolitical tensions persisted and oil prices rose. Eight of 11 GICS sectors rose (financials +1.1%, utilities +0.7%), while industrials, information technology and energy lagged. President Trump signaled progress toward ending operations in Iran and Powell said inflation is in check, providing some relief ahead of Tuesday’s March consumer-confidence data and February JOLTS. The market remains vigilant for a potential normal 10% correction as investors weigh macro risks.

via CNBC|
#business#dow-jones#futures
AI Boom Faces Reality Check: The Bubble Could Burst
markets2 months ago

AI Boom Faces Reality Check: The Bubble Could Burst

AI investment has surged to about $1.03 trillion over six years, but broad economic returns remain elusive; gains are concentrated in information technology and financial sectors, while most non-tech industries show little productivity or profit gains from AI, raising questions about ROI; with the S&P 500 trading at historically high multiples and earnings yields below Treasuries, current market conditions resemble a bubble.

via Seeking Alpha|
#ai#bubble#investing