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Forex

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USD/JPY Rally Triggers Fresh Intervention Watch as Holiday Liquidity Slims
markets19 days ago

USD/JPY Rally Triggers Fresh Intervention Watch as Holiday Liquidity Slims

USD/JPY scored its strongest weekly gain since October 2025 amid a hawkish shift in U.S. rate expectations and a hawkish-but-dovish Bank of Japan narrative, with front‑end yields lifting the dollar and a near-0.98 correlation to U.S. 2-year yields. Yet the rebound raises renewed intervention risk as Japan enters a five-day holiday with thin liquidity and a suspected rate check around 158; traders will monitor Fed speakers (notably Williams) and energy prices for cues. Key levels to watch include resistance near 158 (with 158.41/159.07 nearby) and support down to 156.68, 155.50–155, and 152.90, while a record net long yen position suggests risk may shift toward balance rather than a clear directional move.

Dollar slips on Treasury buybacks fueling currency jitters ahead of Jackson Hole
currency1 month ago

Dollar slips on Treasury buybacks fueling currency jitters ahead of Jackson Hole

The dollar eased as the U.S. Treasury signaled expanded bond-buybacks to dampen yields, prompting questions about potential implications for the currency. The euro rose to about $1.1703 and the pound held near its highs, while the yen firmed after inflation data, as traders await the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium for new guidance.

Yen interventions pin policy gaps as US role raises eyebrows
economy2 months ago

Yen interventions pin policy gaps as US role raises eyebrows

Market watchers say Japan’s yen weakness reflects policy misalignment rather than disorderly markets, with the latest intervention around ¥155–¥160 briefly stabilizing the currency while the BoJ kept rates unchanged. The move’s lasting impact is unclear, given Japan’s energy dependence, fiscal ambitions, and a policy stance seen as too accommodative. The unusually active US participation—financing via the Fed’s facilities and using euros to buy yen—deviates from past, more symmetric G7 actions and raises questions about motives (including curbing US yield pressures). Overall, durable relief will require credible macro reforms rather than FX band-aids.

Joint U.S.-Japan Yen Intervention Signals a New FX Playbook
business2 months ago

Joint U.S.-Japan Yen Intervention Signals a New FX Playbook

The rare U.S.-Japan currency intervention to prop up the yen, reportedly executed via a euro-yen cross and backed by both governments, signals that FX policy is increasingly intertwined with geopolitics. Analysts say the move could deter yen bears, shift funding away from yen carry trades, and push traders to price in policy reactions as a new market variable, potentially reshaping major FX positioning.

Dollar slips near two-week low as Fed bets fade and yen stays pressured
markets3 months ago

Dollar slips near two-week low as Fed bets fade and yen stays pressured

The U.S. dollar hovered near a two-week low as investors pared back bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, while the yen remained near a 40-year trough amid ongoing intervention concerns. The dollar index was around 100.9, with EUR about $1.1435 and GBP near $1.335, and USD/JPY around 161.6. Analysts say intervention risk could spark volatility but is unlikely to reverse the broader trend, as markets await Fed minutes for clearer policy signals and monitor yen dynamics.

Dollar at Peak Strength? Signals of a Coming Turn
business3 months ago

Dollar at Peak Strength? Signals of a Coming Turn

Robin J Brooks argues that the dollar is currently at peak strength after the June 17 Fed meeting and Iran peace news, but positioning data show extreme long-dollar bets across major currencies, suggesting the move may be unsustainable; with oil falling and inflation contained, the Fed is unlikely to hike, implying the dollar should soften through the remainder of 2026 unless new shocks emerge.

Yen slides toward 1980s lows as Tokyo signals decisive action
business-markets3 months ago

Yen slides toward 1980s lows as Tokyo signals decisive action

The yen weakened toward four-decade lows, trading around ¥161 per dollar and briefly hitting ¥161.80 in New York before trimming losses to about ¥161.3–¥161.4 in Tokyo. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that decisive action could come if the slide continues, echoing prior intervention that cost the government roughly ¥11.7 trillion. The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1% for the first time since 1995, but the yen’s weakness persisted amid expectations for further BOJ moves and strong US rate-cut pressure.

Yen rockets on reports of official intervention to shore up currency
business5 months ago

Yen rockets on reports of official intervention to shore up currency

Japan’s yen jumped as much as 3% after reports that authorities carried out official intervention on April 30 to shore up the currency—the first such move since 2024; the Nikkei cited a government source saying officials bought yen and sold dollars with the BoJ, while Finance Minister Katayama signaled decisive action was near and currency diplomat Mimura warned moves were increasing. The dollar weakened to about 156.7 yen, the biggest one-day drop since December 2022, with the MOF saying action could come on all fronts.

Dollar slips as tariffs ruling sparks policy jitters amid Middle East tensions
markets7 months ago

Dollar slips as tariffs ruling sparks policy jitters amid Middle East tensions

The dollar eased after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump overstepped his authority on sweeping tariffs, fueling policy uncertainty and potential litigation over duties, while euro and yen firmed modestly; analysts say the initial market moves are likely knee-jerk, with replacement tariff plans still unclear and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding to risk.