All articles tagged with #forecasts
Silver prices slumped as a hawkish Federal Reserve and oil-driven inflation outweighed geopolitics, pressing the metal toward a key support level. A hold at that support could trigger a sharp rebound and continuation of the prior bullish trend, while a break lower would deepen the correction amid mixed global signals on demand (China weakness and slower global growth).
Gold remains under pressure around the $5,000 level as Treasury yields slide and the dollar dips, testing support near $4,956 after breaking below the $5,100–$5,120 zone and the 50-day moving average; silver hovers around $78–$79 with a break above potentially targeting $86–$87, while platinum rebounds above $2,080 on dip buying with palladium strength supporting the complex, though oil and geopolitics keep catalysts limited in the near term.
A weather system threatens the DC area with severe storms and possible tornadoes today, followed by a sharp cooldown as colder air moves in; monitor forecasts and heed warnings.
Spot Silver closed higher for a third straight session, finishing above pivots and the 50-day MA, setting up a breakout from a three-week range. A break through $86.32 could spark a rally toward $92.20 with potential moves into the $92.87–$99.66 retracement zone, aided by momentum while tariff news and Fed cut expectations frame the near term.
Silver breaks above $100 and targets $120, with Fibonacci-based targets supporting a medium-term upside move. The rally is aided by a weaker USD amid a Fed-rate decision week and political headlines, though a USD rebound could cap gains. Technical charts point to a parabolic rise, suggesting the upside could unfold quickly, potentially within days.
Natural gas rebounds after the EIA report showing a -71 Bcf draw, with prices testing the $3.10 area and eyeing resistance around $3.25–$3.30; WTI crude slips below $60 as Iran supply-disruption fears ease following Trump’s comments, with a path toward $55.50–$56.00 if it continues lower; Brent crude also eases toward $64 as Iran risk fades, with a downside target near $62.54 if losses extend.
U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell to 198,000, topping economists’ expectations and suggesting the labor market remains firm despite ongoing economic shifts.
Wall Street's bullish consensus for 2026, with very tight target ranges for the S&P 500, raises concerns among investors about potential market fragility, as such unanimity may already be priced in and could lead to increased volatility if expectations are disappointed.
Many U.S. cities, especially smaller markets and some major metros, are expected to see significant declines in home prices over the next year due to high interest rates, overvaluation, and increased insurance costs, with smaller cities like Greenville, Mississippi, facing the steepest drops, and larger cities like San Francisco and New Orleans experiencing moderate declines.
Most of the Mid-South, including Memphis, received between 3 and 6 inches of snowfall, with some areas around Interstate 40 seeing a bit more. Eastern Fayette County and much of Hardeman County got hit harder, with 6 to 8 inches, and part of Hardeman and McNairy counties received upwards of 8 inches, in line with forecasts from News Channel 3 weather forecasters.
Deutsche Bank has made the highest S&P 500 forecast on Wall Street, predicting the index to reach 5,100, which its strategists believe may be too conservative. The bank expects a mild recession in the middle of next year, but if trend-like GDP continues, the S&P 500 could finish the year at 5,500. They also see a possibility for the index to surge even higher in 2024. Deutsche Bank remains neutral on megacap growth and technology stocks, while being overweight on financials, consumer cyclicals, and materials.
Forecasts for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2024 have become more important than S&P 500 price targets for investors. Strategists at UBS predict a 2.75% rate cut starting in March, while Goldman Sachs expects rate cuts to begin in the fourth quarter of 2024. Morgan Stanley sees a cumulative 100 basis points rate cut starting in June, while Barclays expects a rate cut in December and a rate hike in January. The Fed itself will release updated forecasts next month. The consensus is that the Fed will cut rates in 2024, and any surprises in the path of interest rates could have a significant impact on financial markets. Lower interest rates generally lead to higher stock prices, but rate cuts in response to a recession pose challenges for the stock market.
VF Corp, the owner of brands like Vans and The North Face, has withdrawn its full-year revenue and profit forecasts due to slowing demand for higher-priced apparel and footwear, particularly in the United States. The company's second-quarter profit was also lower than expected. High borrowing costs and inflation have led customers to prioritize essential purchases, impacting sales of pricier products. VF Corp's margins have been affected by discounts and promotions to attract shoppers and clear surplus inventory. Sales in the Americas fell 11%, while Greater China saw an 8% increase. The company does not expect the performance of its Vans brand to improve in the second half and anticipates a challenging U.S. wholesale environment. VF Corp is implementing a cost reduction program to achieve $300 million in fixed cost savings.
Bank of America's profits have exceeded expectations, beating forecasts as the bank reported strong financial results.
Slawomir Krupa, the head of Societe Generale's retail banking unit, has announced a cut in profit targets and forecasts slower growth for the bank. This decision comes as SocGen faces challenges in the low-interest-rate environment and increased competition from digital banking platforms.