All articles tagged with #inventories
Oil prices face renewed upside risk as the Strait of Hormuz disruption and thinning inventories erode buffers; analysts warn that if the strait stays closed by Labor Day, Brent could jump to about 130–150 per barrel, with gasoline prices likely to rise as U.S. and global stockpiles approach critical minimums, despite SPR releases and other buffers.
Cushing, the U.S. oil storage hub, has about 21.6 million barrels left—near the risk threshold of 20 million—while global inventories are draining and the Strait of Hormuz faces disruption, a combination that could drive crude toward $160–$200 a barrel and gasoline higher in the coming weeks, with export bans unlikely and market volatility likely to rise as supply tightens.
Oil executives warn that U.S. fuel inventories are plunging toward critical lows, signaling a potential summer spike in gasoline prices as supply routes and Iran-related tensions threaten crude flows; the White House has given mixed responses, relying on strategic reserves and policy steps to contain prices.
Despite the Strait of Hormuz being effectively blocked for more than three months, crude prices remain below $100 a barrel thanks to record U.S. exports, a slowdown in Chinese demand, and workarounds that keep crude flowing through alternative routes. A pre-war surplus and steady shipments help absorb the shock, but global inventories are draining at a record pace, leaving the market vulnerable to further disruptions and potential price spikes as spare supply dwindles.
Global oil inventories are nearing critically low levels, making a spike to $150–160 per barrel plausible in the coming weeks, according to Exxon Mobil’s Neil Chapman, who says we could be approaching “unheard of inventory levels” with a two-to-four week window to see really tight stocks. While prices have been hovering in the $90s, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing supply concerns could drive crude higher, though OPEC+ decisions and demand shifts could temper the move. The piece also suggests hedging risk by owning energy names such as Occidental Petroleum or Exxon Mobil amid potential volatility and inflationary pressure from higher oil prices.
The EIA reported an 8.0-million-barrel decline in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending May 29, lowering stockpiles to 433.7 million and 3% below the five-year average. API had flagged a 6.75-million-barrel draw the day before. In early trading, Brent rose to about $98.24/b and WTI to $95.99/b. Gasoline stocks rose 3.4 million barrels and distillates 1.5 million, while overall demand (Total Products Supplied) averaged 20.4 million bpd over the past four weeks, up 3% year over year.
Oil prices were mixed as investors weighed signs of progress in U.S.–Iran diplomacy against fresh U.S. self‑defense strikes in southern Iran. Brent climbed about 2% to $98.26 a barrel while July WTI futures fell roughly 5% to $91.73, with market nerves tied to Hormuz disruption and broader geopolitical risk. The U.S. said it conducted strikes on vessels and missile launch sites to protect troops. Trump’s messaging around the Abraham Accords and Iran talks added caution for traders. UBS warned of a tightening global oil market due to ongoing disruptions and falling on‑land stocks even as tanker storage rose as exports reroute to Asia, signaling undersupply amid persistent strains.
Global oil inventories are collapsing as strategic and commercial stockpiles are drained to offset lost Middle East supply, and even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens it could take months to rebuild the cushion. Demand is already softening in Asia, jet-fuel and plastics feedstocks are tightening in Europe, and prices are rising, signaling a potential deeper, longer-lasting energy crisis if hostilities persist.
Oil prices edged higher in early Asia trade, rebounding from a sharp selloff after reports suggested Washington and Tehran were nearing a framework, while ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz kept a bid under crude. Brent and WTI inched up as traders weigh the chances of a near‑term U.S.–Iran peace deal and watch for Iran’s response within 48 hours, supported by tighter US inventories and robust crude product exports.
With the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil trades above $100 as stockpiles and floating storage cushion the market, but buffers are fading. Analysts warn inventories could reach operational floors by June, turning a gradual adjustment into a forced squeeze that could drive prices much higher, potentially to $150 a barrel, if the disruption persists.
After weeks of absorbing a record supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz, the oil market's buffers are largely exhausted, leaving the system fragile with constrained spare capacity and falling inventories; further disruptions could trigger disproportionate price moves, especially as European refiners compete with Asia for Atlantic Basin barrels, according to Rystad Energy.
Oil prices hovered near six-month highs and were on track for their first weekly gain in three weeks as traders weighed potential US action against Iran and the risk of supply disruption via the Strait of Hormuz; a US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs had little market impact, while falling inventories and talks of renewed OPEC+ output underpin expectations of higher prices.
U.S. crude inventories fell 2.3 million barrels to 423.8 million for the week ending Jan. 24 per the EIA, about 3% below the five-year average, with API reporting a smaller draw a day earlier. Prices rose with Brent near $68.11/bbl and WTI around $63 as winter disruptions and geopolitical risk premiums supported markets. Gasoline stocks increased slightly, distillates rose modestly, and total products supplied (a demand proxy) climbed to 20.3 million b/d over four weeks, though year-over-year demand remained essentially flat-to-down.
Goldman Sachs says silver’s sharp moves are being amplified by unusually tight inventories and thinner liquidity—especially in London—raising the likelihood of persistent volatility near the $100/oz level as demand remains supported by geopolitics and lower U.S. rates.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a significant draw of 6.490 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending May 17, contrasting with the previous week's 2.48 million barrel increase. Gasoline inventories also fell by 452,000 barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 2.045 million barrels. Despite these changes, oil prices were trading down due to concerns over weak gasoline demand and economic data.