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Inventories

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IEA warns 2026 oil demand to fall as Hormuz disruption tightens supply
world14 days ago

IEA warns 2026 oil demand to fall as Hormuz disruption tightens supply

The IEA trimmed its 2026 oil-demand forecast to a 1.6 million barrels-per-day drop (up from about 1 million previously), attributing the revision to continued disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz and renewed tensions that threaten global supply. Demand is expected to dip this year but recover later in 2026, even as inventories remain tight and refining capacity constraints keep prices volatile; the IMF has also cut growth forecasts, underscoring a slower global backdrop.

Gas Nears $4, Diesel Tops $5: A Refinery Crunch Behind the Spike
business1 month ago

Gas Nears $4, Diesel Tops $5: A Refinery Crunch Behind the Spike

Gas is climbing toward $4 a gallon and diesel above $5, but the jump isn’t just about crude prices. A tightening global refining system—Middle East war damage that knocked out many refineries, Ukrainian drone strikes that curbed Russian diesel exports, and US refineries running near full capacity while sending more fuel abroad—has pushed crack spreads higher and left gasoline inventories near their lowest since 2012. With demand rising in summer and heat potentially hampering refinery efficiency, fuel prices could stay elevated even if crude prices don’t rise much.

Hormuz bottleneck could trigger fresh oil-price spikes this summer
energy-and-climate2 months ago

Hormuz bottleneck could trigger fresh oil-price spikes this summer

Oil prices face renewed upside risk as the Strait of Hormuz disruption and thinning inventories erode buffers; analysts warn that if the strait stays closed by Labor Day, Brent could jump to about 130–150 per barrel, with gasoline prices likely to rise as U.S. and global stockpiles approach critical minimums, despite SPR releases and other buffers.

Cushing’s dwindling tanks signal looming oil-price spike
business2 months ago

Cushing’s dwindling tanks signal looming oil-price spike

Cushing, the U.S. oil storage hub, has about 21.6 million barrels left—near the risk threshold of 20 million—while global inventories are draining and the Strait of Hormuz faces disruption, a combination that could drive crude toward $160–$200 a barrel and gasoline higher in the coming weeks, with export bans unlikely and market volatility likely to rise as supply tightens.

Oil Holds Under $100 After Hormuz Shock, Fueled by Workarounds
energy2 months ago

Oil Holds Under $100 After Hormuz Shock, Fueled by Workarounds

Despite the Strait of Hormuz being effectively blocked for more than three months, crude prices remain below $100 a barrel thanks to record U.S. exports, a slowdown in Chinese demand, and workarounds that keep crude flowing through alternative routes. A pre-war surplus and steady shipments help absorb the shock, but global inventories are draining at a record pace, leaving the market vulnerable to further disruptions and potential price spikes as spare supply dwindles.

Oil Could Jump to $150–160 as Inventories Tighten in Coming Weeks
business2 months ago

Oil Could Jump to $150–160 as Inventories Tighten in Coming Weeks

Global oil inventories are nearing critically low levels, making a spike to $150–160 per barrel plausible in the coming weeks, according to Exxon Mobil’s Neil Chapman, who says we could be approaching “unheard of inventory levels” with a two-to-four week window to see really tight stocks. While prices have been hovering in the $90s, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing supply concerns could drive crude higher, though OPEC+ decisions and demand shifts could temper the move. The piece also suggests hedging risk by owning energy names such as Occidental Petroleum or Exxon Mobil amid potential volatility and inflationary pressure from higher oil prices.

EIA Signals Big Draw as U.S. Crude Stocks Drop 8 Million Barrels
energy2 months ago

EIA Signals Big Draw as U.S. Crude Stocks Drop 8 Million Barrels

The EIA reported an 8.0-million-barrel decline in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending May 29, lowering stockpiles to 433.7 million and 3% below the five-year average. API had flagged a 6.75-million-barrel draw the day before. In early trading, Brent rose to about $98.24/b and WTI to $95.99/b. Gasoline stocks rose 3.4 million barrels and distillates 1.5 million, while overall demand (Total Products Supplied) averaged 20.4 million bpd over the past four weeks, up 3% year over year.

Oil markets wobble as Iran diplomacy meets U.S. strikes
business3 months ago

Oil markets wobble as Iran diplomacy meets U.S. strikes

Oil prices were mixed as investors weighed signs of progress in U.S.–Iran diplomacy against fresh U.S. self‑defense strikes in southern Iran. Brent climbed about 2% to $98.26 a barrel while July WTI futures fell roughly 5% to $91.73, with market nerves tied to Hormuz disruption and broader geopolitical risk. The U.S. said it conducted strikes on vessels and missile launch sites to protect troops. Trump’s messaging around the Abraham Accords and Iran talks added caution for traders. UBS warned of a tightening global oil market due to ongoing disruptions and falling on‑land stocks even as tanker storage rose as exports reroute to Asia, signaling undersupply amid persistent strains.

Oil Inventories Hit Low as Hormuz Turmoil Drains Market Cushion
energy3 months ago

Oil Inventories Hit Low as Hormuz Turmoil Drains Market Cushion

Global oil inventories are collapsing as strategic and commercial stockpiles are drained to offset lost Middle East supply, and even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens it could take months to rebuild the cushion. Demand is already softening in Asia, jet-fuel and plastics feedstocks are tightening in Europe, and prices are rising, signaling a potential deeper, longer-lasting energy crisis if hostilities persist.

Oil Edges Higher as Iran Deal Doubts Persist and Hormuz Tensions Loom
business3 months ago

Oil Edges Higher as Iran Deal Doubts Persist and Hormuz Tensions Loom

Oil prices edged higher in early Asia trade, rebounding from a sharp selloff after reports suggested Washington and Tehran were nearing a framework, while ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz kept a bid under crude. Brent and WTI inched up as traders weigh the chances of a near‑term U.S.–Iran peace deal and watch for Iran’s response within 48 hours, supported by tighter US inventories and robust crude product exports.

Oil’s buffer erosion could trigger a sudden price spike as Hormuz stays closed
business3 months ago

Oil’s buffer erosion could trigger a sudden price spike as Hormuz stays closed

With the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil trades above $100 as stockpiles and floating storage cushion the market, but buffers are fading. Analysts warn inventories could reach operational floors by June, turning a gradual adjustment into a forced squeeze that could drive prices much higher, potentially to $150 a barrel, if the disruption persists.

Oil Markets Enter Fragile Phase as Buffers Vanish
energy5 months ago

Oil Markets Enter Fragile Phase as Buffers Vanish

After weeks of absorbing a record supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz, the oil market's buffers are largely exhausted, leaving the system fragile with constrained spare capacity and falling inventories; further disruptions could trigger disproportionate price moves, especially as European refiners compete with Asia for Atlantic Basin barrels, according to Rystad Energy.

Iran risk keeps oil buoyant as prices hover near six-month high
business6 months ago

Iran risk keeps oil buoyant as prices hover near six-month high

Oil prices hovered near six-month highs and were on track for their first weekly gain in three weeks as traders weighed potential US action against Iran and the risk of supply disruption via the Strait of Hormuz; a US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs had little market impact, while falling inventories and talks of renewed OPEC+ output underpin expectations of higher prices.

Oil Edges Higher as U.S. Crude Stock Decline Outpaces Seasonal Demand
energy6 months ago

Oil Edges Higher as U.S. Crude Stock Decline Outpaces Seasonal Demand

U.S. crude inventories fell 2.3 million barrels to 423.8 million for the week ending Jan. 24 per the EIA, about 3% below the five-year average, with API reporting a smaller draw a day earlier. Prices rose with Brent near $68.11/bbl and WTI around $63 as winter disruptions and geopolitical risk premiums supported markets. Gasoline stocks increased slightly, distillates rose modestly, and total products supplied (a demand proxy) climbed to 20.3 million b/d over four weeks, though year-over-year demand remained essentially flat-to-down.