
Astrobiology's Statistical Impasse: Proving Life with Vast Planet Samples
A new arXiv paper argues that proving life on other planets via biosignatures is statistically intractable with current methods: diffuse priors in Bayesian analysis can require astronomically large exoplanet samples (potentially up to trillions) to reach strong evidence, meaning the Habitable World Observatory will likely yield only evidence rather than a definitive discovery unless a new statistical framework (such as controlled comparisons) is developed.













