
Grain at stake: Black Sea blockade endangers Ukraine harvest and global food security
Russia’s renewed Black Sea blockade of Ukrainian ports threatens Ukraine’s 2026–27 grain harvest (exports could drop from ~60 million tonnes to ~38–40 million) and risks global food security as more than 50 Ukrainian cargo ships have been attacked since June. Ukraine is pursuing alternatives via Poland, Romania (Constanța), Hungary, and Moldova (600,000 tonnes transit), but rail/road transport is costlier and Danube water levels complicate shipments. Russia’s own grain exports could fall by more than half in August, adding pressure to global markets and highlighting the geopolitical leverage of food should a truce fail to materialize.












