All articles tagged with #pce
April’s PCE inflation rose 3.8% year over year—the highest in nearly three years, with core PCE at 3.3%—as energy costs led broad price gains across housing, utilities and services; personal income growth lagged inflation and the saving rate slipped to 2.6%, while spending rose 0.5% in April, signaling households are feeling the squeeze and fueling expectations for a potential Fed rate hike later this year under new chair Warsh.
BEA's April 2026 personal income fell marginally (less than $0.1B) while disposable personal income slipped 0.1%; meanwhile personal consumption expenditures rose 0.5%, lifting total outlays by about $114B. Personal saving was $611.7B (2.6% saving rate). Real DPI dropped 0.5% and real PCE increased 0.1%, with the PCE price index up 0.4% (0.2% excluding food and energy). The income decline was mainly due to farm proprietors’ income tied to the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, with compensation led by private wages and salaries. Next BEA release is June 25, 2026.
April’s core PCE rose 0.2% to 3.3% year over year, with the broader PCE up 0.4% to 3.8%, while Q1 GDP was revised to 1.6% annualized and consumer spending rose 0.5% in April. The data suggest inflation remains elevated but cooling, keeping the Fed on hold for now, with markets pricing potential rate moves in early next year.
New Fed chair Kevin Warsh faces a stubborn inflation backdrop as April’s PCE is expected to rise to about 3.9%, complicating expectations for rate cuts. He pledges reform and independence while contending with Trump’s push for cheaper borrowing. Analysts see a delicate path ahead, with holding rates through 2026 and only a later-year chance of hikes depending on inflation.
March’s PCE price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 0.7% from February, lifting the annual rate to 3.5% (its highest since May 2023). Core PCE rose 0.3% month over month to 3.2% year over year. The jump was driven largely by higher energy costs linked to the Iran–Israel conflict and shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf, while consumer spending rose 0.9% in February but inflation left real spending up only 0.2%.
US personal income fell 0.1% in February 2026 (-$18.2B), with disposable income down 0.1% (-$18.3B), while personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% (+$103.2B), boosting total personal outlays by 0.5% (+$106.5B). Personal saving reached $931.5B (4.0% saving rate). The income drop was mainly due to lower personal dividend income and fewer transfer receipts, even as compensation rose. The PCE increase was split between goods (+$58.7B) and services (+$44.5B); real PCE rose 0.1%, and the PCE price index climbed 0.4% (0.4% excluding food and energy). Year over year, PCE prices were up 2.8% (3.0% ex food and energy). BEA notes data revisions and ongoing improvements; the next release is April 30, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
February core PCE rose 3% and headline inflation 2.8%, while consumer spending fell 0.1% and personal income rose 0.4%. GDP for Q4 was revised down to 0.5% growth (down from 0.7%), driven by weaker investment and lower real final sales. The report suggests stagflation pressures even before the Iran conflict boosts energy prices, with Fed officials expected to keep rates on hold as inflation remains above target.
U.S. personal income rose by $113.8 billion (0.4%) in January 2026, with disposable income up 0.9%. Personal consumption expenditures increased by $81.1 billion (0.4%), led by services, while real PCE rose 0.1%. The PCE price index gained 0.3% overall (0.4% ex-food/energy). Personal saving reached $1.05 trillion and the saving rate was 4.5%. The gains were driven by higher compensation, personal dividends, and a January cost-of-living adjustment boosting Social Security benefits. BEA also announced data-release modernization, moving to online interactive tables and discontinuing PDF/Excel releases after February 2026; next release is April 9, 2026.
Stock futures rose about 0.4% in premarket trading after the latest PCE inflation data showed a 2.8% year-over-year rise and a hotter core reading, with oil prices easing as traders weigh the Fed’s likely path; Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures were higher ahead of the open, aided by a BEA GDP revision to 0.7% annual growth for Q4 and modest moves in Treasury yields.
U.S. stock-index futures rose as oil prices fell, with traders awaiting the PCE inflation data to gauge the path of Federal Reserve policy.
Futures tick higher ahead of January PCE inflation data as oil spikes on Iran tensions, following a session in which the Dow fell about 740 points and the S&P 500 dropped around 1.5%. Brent crude topped $100 and WTI near $96 as energy concerns weigh on the outlook and near-term Fed rate-cut bets. After-hours movers included Ulta Beauty (earnings miss), Adobe (CEO Shantanu Narayen to step down after successor is named), and Lennar (earnings miss). Investors will scrutinize the PCE index for clues on monetary policy as the week’s losses mount.
In December 2025, U.S. personal income rose 0.3% to $86.2B, boosting disposable income (DPI) by 0.3% and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) by 0.4% (with services up more than goods). Real PCE grew 0.1%, while the PCE price index climbed 0.4% (0.4% ex-food-and-energy, 2.9% year over year). Saving reached $830.8B (3.6% of DPI). The income gains were driven by transfer receipts (including a Maui wildfire settlement) and higher compensation, and personal outlays rose 0.4% to $90.2B. BEA also noted upcoming changes to its data-release formats and schedules, with the next release on March 13, 2026.
Friday morning's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, could move U.S. markets as traders assess whether inflation is moderating and what that means for Fed rate cuts this year. If PCE confirms cooling inflation, markets could rise with bets of multiple rate cuts; futures currently price in about two 25bp cuts in 2026, potentially lifting to three if the data reinforces a softer inflation path.
U.S. stock futures were mixed Friday ahead of Q4 GDP data and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE), plus a Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs; Dow futures fell about 30 points, S&P 500 futures were little changed, and Nasdaq-100 futures rose ~0.1%. Economists expect Q4 real GDP growth around 2.5% and the PCE price index about 2.8% year over year (core ~3%). Fed minutes show officials split on rate cuts, signaling more evidence inflation must cool. A ruling against tariffs could lift markets, though the White House may reimpose duties later. In recent sessions, the Dow and Nasdaq slipped while oil rose amid U.S.–Iran tensions; Nvidia earnings are due next week.
Stock futures were near flat after a tepid session for U.S. equities, with Dow futures down about 32 points, S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.1%. In regular trading, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose about 0.1% while the Dow gained roughly 32 points. The tech sector remained under pressure, with CrowdStrike and ServiceNow down 3.6% and 1.1%, respectively. Investors await the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes and Friday’s PCE inflation data, with Booking Holdings, Carvana and DoorDash due to report this week. After-hours movers included Palo Alto Networks, Cadence Design Systems, and Caesars Entertainment. Amazon rose 1.2%, snapping a nine-day losing streak as investors weigh AI-spending implications.