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Mark Zandi

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Gas prices won’t drop to $3 soon—even with Iran ceasefire, experts say
business1 day ago

Gas prices won’t drop to $3 soon—even with Iran ceasefire, experts say

US gas prices around $4.15–$4.17 per gallon aren’t expected to fall back to prewar $3 even if Iran’s ceasefire holds. Uncertainty over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, plus ongoing Gulf production cuts, possible tolls, higher shipping insurance, and risk premiums in oil futures—all compounded by global market dynamics—mean relief to below $3 is unlikely this year, with some analysts suggesting it may not happen until next year.

via Yahoo|
#business#gas-prices#iran
Oil at About $125/Barrel Could Push US Economy Toward Recession, Zandi Warns
business17 days ago

Oil at About $125/Barrel Could Push US Economy Toward Recession, Zandi Warns

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says US recession risk is rising and could be triggered if oil averages about $125 per barrel in Q2; their simulations identify that level as a plausible tipping point amid Iran tensions and a weak labor market. Although not predicting an outright downturn in their baseline outlook, higher oil prices have shaved roughly 15–20 basis points from 2026 real GDP growth, and their April forecast expects a further rise in oil prices that would weigh on growth and push recession probabilities higher.

via Business Insider|
#business#gdp-growth#mark-zandi
Moody’s Flags Recession Risk Climbing Toward 50% on Oil Shock
economy25 days ago

Moody’s Flags Recession Risk Climbing Toward 50% on Oil Shock

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi says the odds of a U.S. recession are a “serious threat,” with the probability potentially rising above 50% in the next 12 months as oil and gas prices surge amid the U.S.-Iran conflict; before the flare‑up, the model put odds at about 48.6%, and historically nearly every recession since WWII followed a spike in oil prices (except the pandemic). Goldman Sachs meanwhile assigns a 25% recession risk over the next year after a weak February jobs report (−92,000 payrolls vs. +50,000 expected) with the unemployment rate at 4.4%. While higher oil prices can weigh on activity, the U.S.’s status as a net exporter and domestic supply can dampen the impact somewhat. The outlook remains uncertain for investors.

via TipRanks|
#economy#mark-zandi#moodys
US Economic Outlook: Recession Avoided or Imminent?
economics2 years ago

US Economic Outlook: Recession Avoided or Imminent?

Dr. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, has listed five reasons why he believes the US will avoid a recession in 2023, despite warnings from economists and analysts. Zandi argues that excess savings, labor hoarding, light debt loads, anchored inflation expectations, and low oil prices will help the US economy to keep moving forward. He notes that consumers have been spending just enough to keep the economy growing, while companies are avoiding layoffs and relying on foreign immigrants to fill jobs. Additionally, household borrowing has remained prudent, and low oil prices have helped to keep inflation down.

via AlterNet|
#economics#federal-reserve#inflation
The Impact of AI on Employment and the Economy.
technology2 years ago

The Impact of AI on Employment and the Economy.

Moody's Analytics' chief economist, Mark Zandi, believes that while artificial intelligence (AI) presents both challenges and opportunities for workers and employees, concerns about job loss may be premature. Zandi suggests that AI is still in its early stages and will take several years, even a couple of decades, to be incorporated into business practices. He also believes that AI will be implemented differently across various sectors of the economy and will create winners and losers.

via CNBC|
#artificial-intelligence#challenges#mark-zandi
Experts predict Fed will hold off on rate hikes amidst banking turmoil and investor anticipation.
finance3 years ago

Experts predict Fed will hold off on rate hikes amidst banking turmoil and investor anticipation.

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi thinks the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its March meeting due to the recent bank failures causing uncertainty. The US economy is still fighting high inflation, but it is moderating and moving in the right direction. Zandi believes the US banking system is in a pretty good spot, but the Fed should still pause its rate hikes to gauge how much conditions have tightened and what the impact is on the broader economy and ultimately inflation.

via CNBC|
#banking-system#federal-reserve#finance